人为排放及气象因素对空气质量影响的定量分析——以疫情期间邢台市为例

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Abstract Meteorological and human factors during the specific epidemic are critical for effectively evaluating the causes of air quality changes in different areas. This study selected Xingtai City, Hebei Province as the research object, took 2020 epidemic situation as an experimental scenario of extreme emission reduction under the extreme control measures, and 2021 epidemic situation as an experimental analysis scenario of future normalized epidemic prevention and control. Compared with the period prior to the epidemic, the ozone concentration during the two epidemics increased, and the particle concentration during the 2021 epidemic also increased. The concentration of other pollutants during the 2020 epidemic decreased to varying degrees. Compared with the same period in 2019, the ozone concentration during the two epidemics also increased. In addition, the pollutant concentration during the 2021 epidemic declined more. Using LSTM algorithm and WRF-CMAQ model to quantify impacts of meteorological factors on the changes in pollutant concentration during the two epidemic periods. The human-induced changes in different pollutant concentrations were deduced as indicated by the results from the air quality simulation. The simulation of LSTM algorithm during the two outbreaks shows that human being had a negative impact on pollutants (reducing their concentration) and accounted for a high proportion in the total change, while the influence of meteorological factors simulated with CMAQ model was much higher than that with LSTM algorithm. Anthropogenic influences dominated during the 2020 epidemic period, while compared to that during the 2020 epidemic period, the impact of anthropogenic activities on pollutants (except NO₂) was positive (promoting an increase in pollutant concentration) during the 2021 epidemic period.

Key words： machine learning algorithm air quality model COVID-19 Xingtai City PM_2.5

Received: 28 January 2022

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X511

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	QI Hao-yun
	WANG Xiao-qi
	CHENG Shui-yuan

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QI Hao-yun,WANG Xiao-qi,CHENG Shui-yuan. Quantitative analysis of the impact of anthropogenic emissions and meteorological factors on air quality: Cases during the epidemic in Xingtai City[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2022, 42(8): 3512-3521.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2022/V42/I8/3512

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