天津市减污降碳协同效应评估与预测

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Abstract To evaluate and predict the synergistic effect of reducing pollution and carbon in Tianjin, the emission reduction elasticity coefficient method was used in this study. Based on the STIRPAT model, the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in Tianjin during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period and 2026~2060 were predicted by scenario. The results showed that the main emission sources of air pollution equivalent and greenhouse gases were industrial sources. The synergistic effect coefficient of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in Tianjin ranged from 0.11 to 0.26 in 2015~2017, and was less than 0in 2013~2014 and 2018~2020. According to prediction, the synergistic effect coefficient of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in Tianjin was 0.06 during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period and was greater than 0 in 2026~2060 under various scenarios. In 2011~2020, the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in Tianjin fluctuated and changed, and it was possible to reach the synergistic stage during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. In order to achieve a high level of synergy of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in Tianjin from 2026 to 2060, several measures need to take, including reasonably control the urbanization rate, the total population and the gross regional product, increasing the proportion of tertiary industry and high technology, and continuously reducing the energy intensity.

Key words： reduce pollution and carbon synergy effect Tianjin

Received: 06 January 2022

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	LIU Mao-hui
	LIU Sheng-nan
	LI Jing
	SUN Meng
	CHEN Kui

Cite this article:

LIU Mao-hui,LIU Sheng-nan,LI Jing等. Evaluation and prediction of the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in Tianjin[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2022, 42(8): 3940-3949.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2022/V42/I8/3940

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