近20年我国虚拟水、能消耗及耦合和需求预测

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Abstract Based on China's water and energy consumption data from 1997 to 2018, the input-output model was used to estimate the consumption of virtual water and energy in the three industries. At the same time, the coupling coordination degree model was used to simulate the coupling coordination level of the virtual water and energy system. Finally, the exponential smoothing method was used to predict the total consumption of virtual water and energy in China from 2022 to 2032. The results show that:(1) In the last 20years, the consumption of virtual water and energy showed an general upward trend in the three industries, and the proportion of virtual water and energy consumption in the primary and secondary industries showed downward trends, while that in the tertiary industry showed an upward trend; (2) The direct and complete water and energy consumption coefficients of the three industries showed downward trends, resulting in the continuous improvement in the utilization efficiency of water and energy; (3) Through indirectly consuming a large amount of water and energy, the secondary and tertiary industries were thought as "invisible" industries with high water and energy consumption; (4) The virtual water-energy system was in a high level of coupling, but it only reached the primary stage of coordinated development; (5) The consumption of virtual water, energy and physical energy will still increase, while that of physical water will decrease in the decade. Therefore, to alleviate China's water and energy crisis in the future, it is necessary to optimize the industrial structure, increase the utilization efficiency of water and energy resources in all links of the industrial chain, improve the consumption structure, and enhance the coupling and coordination degree of the virtual water-energy system.

Key words： virtual water virtual energy input-output model coupling coordination model industrial structure

Received: 18 February 2022

PACS:	X21
	F426.2
	TV213.4

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	WANG Feng-chu
	CAO Jian-jun
	WANG Ning
	JIAO Yu-meng
	LI Yu

Cite this article:

WANG Feng-chu,CAO Jian-jun,WANG Ning等. Consumption and coupling of virtual water and virtual energy in the past 20 years and predicting their demand for the next decade in China[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2022, 42(10): 4919-4930.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2022/V42/I10/4919

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