基于GAM的喀斯特植被覆盖与驱动因素非线性关系分析

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Abstract This study explored the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of vegetation cover, using Theil-Sen slope estimation with the Mann-Kendall (MK) significance test for determining the normalized vegetation index (NDVI) of five Southwestern provinces in China from 2000~2018. The MK mutation test was used to determine the mutation time points of NDVI and nighttime light data. The generalized additive model (GAM) was used to fit the response curve of vegetation cover with socio-economic and natural driving factors, and the difference in the nonlinear response relationship between karst and non-karst areas was studied. The results showed that the overall effect of vegetation restoration in the Central and Eastern areas of the study was greater than that in the Western areas. Night light data were used as proxy variables to characterize urbanization. The results showed that both urbanization and vegetation cover underwent abrupt changes between 2009 and 2010, with the abrupt change in urbanization occurring earlier than that in vegetation cover. There was an 88.54% increase in vegetation index in karst regions, with a 48.15% significant increase. In non-karst regions, 80.08% of the vegetation cover increased, with 32.34% of a considerable increase. Generally, vegetation restoration in karst regions is better than in non-karst regions. There were different nonlinear responses between the vegetation index and human influencing factors such as gross domestic product, road network density, and built-up areas. Overall, non-karst regions are more affected by temperature than karst regions. However, precipitation and soil thickness exert a slightly more significant impact on vegetation restoration in karst regions than in non-karst regions. The comparative evaluation of vegetation restoration effects in karst and non-karst regions and exploration of the nonlinear relationships of the leading causes behind vegetation cover changes exert an influential impact on ecological restoration planning.

Key words： Karst vegetation index driver factors mutation testing nonlinearity generalized additive model (GAM)

Received: 07 September 2022

PACS:	X171
	Q948

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	Articles by authors
	HUANG Qi
	PENG Li
	LI Sai-nan
	HUANG Zi-yan
	DENG Wei

Cite this article:

HUANG Qi,PENG Li,LI Sai-nan等. Analysis of the nonlinear relationship between karst vegetation cover and driving factors based on GAM[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2023, 43(5): 2489-2496.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2023/V43/I5/2489

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