基于松弛逼近方法的天津PM<sub>2.5</sub>延伸期数值预报研究

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Abstract Based on the Tianjin extended period Air Quality Numerical forecasting system (CFS/WRF-Chem), this study introduced Nudging technology to restrict the model integration process, and conducted sensitivity experiments by Grid Nudging and Spectral Nudging. Through the optimization scheme experiments of parameters such as Nudging wave number, Nudging time and Nudging variables, the improvement applicability of Nudging technology in the extended period PM_2.5 numerical prediction to effectively enhance the accuracy of air quality trend prediction for 10~45 days in autumn and winter in Tianjin. The results showed that: Compared to the extend period numerical model prediction without Nudging technology, no matter the Grid Nudging or Spectral Nudging, prediction improved after using Nudging technology. The correlation coefficient between daily prediction and observed PM_2.5 concentration increased from 0.1without Nudging technology to 0.35 by Grid Nudging and 0.43 by Spectral Nudging, and the prediction accuracy of PM_2.5 grade increased from 33% to 47% and 44%, respectively. Compared to the selection of Grid Nudging and Spectral Nudging scheme, the optimal configuration of parameters such as Nudging wave number, Nudging time and Nudging variables, was more critical to the application of Nudging technology. In Grid Nudging, the best prediction was the experiment by Nudging coefficient was 5×10^-5, Nudging time was 6h, and Nudging variable was θ-q-uv. In Spectral Nudging, the best prediction is the experiment by Nudging wave number was 1, truncated wavelength was 1800km, and Nudging variable was θ-q-uv. Even using Nudging technology, there are still great uncertainties in the extended period daily PM_2.5 concentration prediction, which is more suitable for trend prediction (increase or decrease). According to the analysis of the PM_2.5 concentration trend between pentads, the prediction accuracy was 50% without Nudging technology, and increased to 75% by Grid Nudging, and 88% by Spectral Nudging. Spectral Nudging provided a slightly better prediction, which could effectively support the extended period PM_2.5 trend prediction by pentad resolution.

Key words： Tianjin Nudging numerical prediction technology of extended period PM_2.5 WRF-Chem

Received: 10 February 2023

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X513

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	TANG Ying-xiao
	QIN Ming-yue
	CAI Zi-ying
	YANG Xu

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TANG Ying-xiao,QIN Ming-yue,CAI Zi-ying等. Numerical prediction technology of extended period PM_2.5 in autumn and winter in Tianjin based on Nudging method[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2023, 43(9): 4503-4511.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2023/V43/I9/4503

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