地面PM<sub>2.5</sub>和气溶胶激光雷达联合变分同化对天津冬季一次重污染过程数值模拟改进研究

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Abstract For the transport-type heavy pollution episodes, the vertical simulation deviation of atmospheric chemical model was large, the ground observation assimilation could not significantly improve the vertical initial field of pollution, and the upper air transport was underestimated. A heavy pollution episode was taken as an example in Tianjin, which occurred from January 5 to 6, 2023, the aerosol variational assimilation technology was developed for the joint application of surface PM_2.5 and aerosol lidar vertical observations, to improve the vertical pollution simulation of atmospheric chemical model and serve forecast, early warning and mechanism analysis of heavy pollution episodes. The results showed that during the heavy pollution episode, growth rate and peak concentration of ground PM_2.5 was significantly underestimated, simulated pollution layer height was about 200~300m lower than observed value and characteristics such as higher PM_2.5 concentration in upper air than that on the ground in transportation phase of daytime and high pollution values above the stable boundary layer at night were not effectively reflected; Assimilation of surface PM_2.5 observations effectively optimized PM_2.5 spatial distribution, average simulation error decreased by 35.3μg/m³ and 77.3μg/m³ respectively in Shijiazhuang and Hengshui, the upstream cities and decreased by 39.7μg/m³ in Tianjin. However, its improvement on vertical distribution simulation was limited, especially for the complex change of PM_2.5 vertical distribution in transport-type pollution episode, which was not accurately reflected. By adding assimilation of vertical PM_2.5 observations obtained from aerosol lidar, vertical PM_2.5 simulation was further improved, the maximum reduction of PM_2.5 mass concentration RMSE was 19.8μg/m³ at about 500m. There was obvious positive effect at the assimilated time and within 2~3h, as for subsequent time, simulated pollution layer height was basically same with observation in S2 phase, the difference between them reduced to 50~100m, compared with 200~300m in CTRL experiment without assimilation and 100~200m in DA_SFC experiment with surface PM_2.5 assimilation. High value of pollution above stable boundary layer was effectively simulated and the simulation error of PM_2.5 mass concentration in the heavy polluted layer was significantly reduced; Assimilation effect in the daytime on January 5 was not good as that of S2 phase, accurate simulation of vertical PM_2.5 could be achieved in a short time, but the deviation of vertical simulation had been significantly enlarged again with simulation time increasing. In spite of this, positive effect still existed compared with DA_SFC and the simulation error of pollution layer height was reduced by at least 50m.

Key words： aerosol data assimilation 3-DVAR lidar numerical simulation

Received: 06 March 2023

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X513

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	Articles by authors
	YANG Xu
	FAN Wen-yan
	CAI Zi-ying
	ZHU Yu-qiang
	TANG Ying-xiao
	DONG Qi-ru

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YANG Xu,FAN Wen-yan,CAI Zi-ying等. Improvement on numerical simulation by variational assimilation of surface PM_2.5 and aerosol lidar during a heavy pollution episode in winter in Tianjin[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2023, 43(10): 5088-5097.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2023/V43/I10/5088

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