基于场景模拟的公路货运新能源车成本效益分析研究

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Abstract To achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, China's road freight sector needs to reduce emissions by developing electric and hydrogen vehicles to replace traditional fuel vehicles. In this paper, a life-cycle benefit analysis model of freight vehicles considering scenario heterogeneity was constructed to compare the life-cycle costs and revenues of oil, electric and hydrogen vehicles under different route scenarios, taking 25t tractors and 18t railcars as examples. The results showed that hydrogen vehicles were more suitable for long-distance heavy freight scenarios with high shipping prices and cold climates, while electric freight models were more suitable for low shipping prices, short-distance, light-load, and warm climate scenarios. Moreover, hydrogen vehicles can outperform electric vehicles in 25-ton heavy freight scenarios by 2030, which can be the key layout direction for hydrogen vehicles. In the short and medium term, policies such as hydrogen price subsidies and carbon taxes cannot achieve spontaneous substitution of new energy vehicles for fuel vehicles in the freight sector, and additional policy support will be needed.

Key words： road freight electric vehicles hydrogen vehicles life cycle assessment scenario simulation

Received: 01 March 2023

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X24

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	Articles by authors
	LIU Wei
	WAN Yan-ming
	CHEN Si-yuan
	LIU Chang
	LIU Qi
	ZHANG Yan
	WANG Ge

Cite this article:

LIU Wei,WAN Yan-ming,CHEN Si-yuan等. Study on the cost-benefit analysis of new energy vehicles for road freight transportation based on scenario simulation[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2023, 43(10): 5624-5632.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2023/V43/I10/5624

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