中国农业净碳汇时空分异与影响因素演进分析

Abstract
Figure/Table
References
Related Citation (15)

Download: PDF (2741 KB) HTML (0 KB)
Export: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)

Abstract Given the current climate goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, it is crucial to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of agricultural net carbon sink in China. This study aims at promoting high-quality agricultural development and achieving the "dual carbon" goal. Based on the total amount and intensity of China's provincial net carbon sink from 2002 to 2021, a random forest model was used to identify the primary drivers of the agricultural net carbon sink and its nonlinear response relationship. The results show that:(1) China's agricultural sector is experiencing a slow but consistent carbon surplus growth, demonstrating an attained carbon neutrality and transitioning towards an elevated carbon surplus state in most provinces; (2) the total net carbon sink tends to decline from the east to the west, with an increase in high-value agglomeration and a decrease in low-value agglomeration; (3) the spatial agglomeration and non-equilibrium of net carbon sink intensity tend to be obvious, with a higher intensity in the northeast, central, and southwest; and (4) the key factors driving agricultural net carbon sink include irrigation conditions, mechanized straw return, mechanized no-tillage sowing, grain yield, etc., exhibiting nonlinear effects on the net carbon sink. Specifically, there is a U-shaped relationship between education level and agricultural net carbon sink, and mechanization level has a significant inhibitory effect, while other factors demonstrate a positive fluctuation effect.

Key words： agricultural net carbon sequestration spatial-temporal variation influencing factors random forest model China

Received: 08 June 2023

PACS:

X171.3

	Service

	E-mail this article
	Add to my bookshelf
	Add to citation manager
	E-mail Alert
	RSS
	Articles by authors
	GUAN Jun
	ZHANG Shao-peng
	REN Yue
	SHENG Chun-guang

Cite this article:

GUAN Jun,ZHANG Shao-peng,REN Yue等. Random forest model-assisted evaluation of spatiotemporal differentiation of China's agricultural net carbon sink and evolution of influencing factors[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2024, 44(2): 1158-1170.

URL:

http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2024/V44/I2/1158

[1]	IPCC. AR6synthesis report:Climate change 2023[EB/OL]. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr.
[2]	Crippa M, Solazzo E, Guizzardi D, et al. Food systems are responsible for a third of global anthropogenic GHG emissions [J]. Nature Food, 2021,2(3):198-209.
[3]	Shukla P R, Skeg J, Calvo B E, et al. Climate change and land:An IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems [M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2019:249-343.
[4]	田云,张俊飚.中国农业生产净碳效应分异研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2013,28(8):1298-1309. Tian Y, Zhang J B. Regional differentiation research on net carbon effect of agricultural production in China [J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2013,28(8):1298-1309.
[5]	薛彩霞,李园园,胡超,等.中国保护性耕作净碳汇的时空格局[J]. 自然资源学报, 2022,37(5):1164-1182. Xue C X, Li Y Y, Hu C, et al. Study on spatio-temporal pattern of conservation tillage on net carbon sink in China [J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2022,37(5):1164-1182.
[6]	陈罗烨,薛领,雪燕.中国农业净碳汇时空演化特征分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2016,31(4):596-607. Chen L Y, Xue L, Xue Y. Spatial-temporal characteristics of China's agricultural net carbon sink [J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2016, 31(4):596-607.
[7]	陈罗烨,薛领,雪燕.中国农业净碳汇空间集聚与分异[J]. 生态环境学报, 2015,24(11):1777-1784. Chen L Y, Xue L, Xue Y. Spatial agglomeration and variation of China's agricultural net carbon sink [J]. Ecology and Environmental Sciences, 2015,24(11):1777-1784.
[8]	田云,尹忞昊.中国农业碳排放再测算:基本现状、动态演进及空间溢出效应[J]. 中国农村经济, 2022,(3):104-127. Tian Y, Yin M H. Re-evaluation of China's agricultural carbon emissions:Basic status, dynamic evolution and spatial spillover effects [J]. Chinese Rural Economy, 2022,(3):104-127.
[9]	李波,王春妤,张俊飚.中国农业净碳汇效率动态演进与空间溢出效应[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2019,29(12):68-76. Li B, Wang C Y, Zhang J B. Dynamic evolution and spatial spillover of China's agricultural net carbon sink [J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2019,29(12):68-76.
[10]	李园园,薛彩霞,柴朝卿,等.中国保护性耕作净碳汇的时空分异特征及其驱动力[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2022,32(10):15-23. Li Y Y, Xue C X, Chai C Q, et al. Spatio temporal variation and driving forces of net carbon sink of conservation tillage in China [J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2022,32(10):15-23.
[11]	李波,张俊飚,李海鹏.中国农业碳排放时空特征及影响因素分解[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2011,21(8):80-86. Li B, Zhang J B, Li H P. Research on spatial-temporal characteristics and affecting factors decomposition of agricultural carbon emission in China [J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2011,21(8):80-86.
[12]	尚杰,杨滨键.种植业碳源、碳汇测算与净碳汇影响因素动态分析:山东例证[J]. 改革, 2019,(6):123-134. Shang J, Yang B J. Estimation of carbon source and carbon sequestration in planting industry and dynamic analysis of influencing factors of net carbon sequestration:A case study of Shandong province [J]. Reform, 2019,(6):123-134.
[13]	Tristtam O W, Gregg M. Net carbon flux from agriculture:Carbon emissions, carbon sequestration, crop yield, and land-use change [J]. Biogeochemistry, 2003,63(1):73-83.
[14]	Kim D G, Kirschbaum M U F, Beedy T. Carbon sequestration and net emissions of CH4 and N2O under agroforestry:Synthesizing available data and suggestions for future studies [J]. Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment, 2016,226:65-78.
[15]	翁翎燕,李伟霄,张梅,等.江苏省农田生态系统净碳汇时空演变特征[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2022,31(7):1584-1594. Weng L Y, Li W X, Zhang M, et al. Spatial-temporal evolution of net carbon sink of farmland ecosystem in Jiangsu province [J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2022,31(7):1584-1594.
[16]	杜江,罗珺,王锐,等.粮食主产区种植业碳功能测算与时空变化规律研究[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2019,35(10):1242-1251. Du J, Luo J, Wang R, et al. The estimation and analysis of spatio-temporal change patterns of carbon functions in major grain producing area [J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2019, 35(10):1242-1251.
[17]	翁翎燕,朱振宇,韩许高,等.江苏省农田植被净碳汇时空格局分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2018,34(6):233-241. Weng L Y, Zhu Z Y, Han X G, et al. Spatial-temporal pattern of net carbon sink of farmland vegetation in Jiangsu province [J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2018, 34(6):233-241.
[18]	邵桂兰,孔海峥,李晨.中国海水养殖的净碳汇及其与经济耦合关系[J]. 资源科学, 2019,41(2):277-288. Shao G L, Kong H Z, Li C. Net amount of mariculture carbon sink and its coupling relationship with economics growth of China [J]. Resources Science, 2019,41(2):277-288.
[19]	吴昊玥,孟越,黄瀚蛟,等.中国耕地利用净碳汇与农业生产的时空耦合特征[J]. 水土保持学报, 2022,36(5):360-368,376. Wu H Y, Meng Y, Huang H J, et al. Spatio-temporal coupling between the net carbon sequestration of cropland use and agricultural production in China [J]. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 2022, 36(5):360-368,376.
[20]	谢永浩,刘争.中国省域种植业碳汇量、碳排放量的时空分异及公平性研究[J]. 世界农业, 2022,(2):100-109. Xie Y H, Liu Z. Study on the temporal and spatial differentiation and equity of carbon sink and carbon emission of China's provincial planting industry [J]. World Agriculture, 2022,(2):100-109.
[21]	许冬兰,宋晓敏,郭宇钦.中国海水养殖净碳汇效率的空间演进与外溢效应[J]. 海洋开发与管理, 2023,40(2):56-66. Xu D L, Song X M, Guo Y Q. Spatial evolution and spillover effect of net carbon sink efficiency in mariculture in China [J]. Marine Development and Management, 2023,40(2):56-66.
[22]	Zhang X F, Xin X L,Yang W L,et al. Soil respiration and net carbon flux response to long-term reduced/no-tillage with and without residues in a wheat-maize cropping system [J]. Soil and Tillage Research, 2021,217:105182.
[23]	唐海明,李超,肖小平,等.不同耕作模式对双季稻田生态系统净碳汇效应及收益的影响[J]. 生态环境学报, 2020,29(2):215-222. Tang H M, Li C, Xiao X P, et al. Influences of different tillage on net carbon sink and economic benefit of paddy ecosystem under double-cropping rice field [J]. Ecology and Environmental Sciences, 2020,29(2):215-222.
[24]	吴家梅,纪雄辉,彭华,等.南方双季稻田稻草还田的碳汇效应[J]. 应用生态学报, 2011,22(12):3196-3202. Wu J M, Ji X H, Peng H, et al. Carbon sequestration effects of rice straw return in double season paddy field in southern China [J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2011,22(12):3196-3202.
[25]	徐清华,张广胜.农业机械化对农业碳排放强度影响的空间溢出效应——基于282个城市面板数据的实证[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2022,32(4):23-33. Xu Q H, Zhang G S. Spatial spillover effect of agricultural mechanization on agricultural carbon emission intensity [J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2022,32(4):23-33.
[26]	田云,张君.地理分区视角下的农业碳效应驱动机理研究[J]. 华中农业大学学报(社会科学版), 2020,146(2):78-87,165-166. Tian Y, Zhang J. Research on driving mechanism of agricultural carbon effect from the perspective of geographical divisions [J]. Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University (Social Sciences Edition), 2020,146(2):78-87,165-166.
[27]	王少剑,谢紫寒,王泽宏.中国县域碳排放的时空演变及影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 2021,76(12):3103-3118. Wang S J, Xie Z H, Wang Z H. The spatio-temporal pattern evolution and influencing factors of CO2 emissions at the county level of China [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021,76(12):3103-3118.
[28]	佘宗昀,孙乐,陈盛伟.农业保险对农业固碳增效的影响及机制研究[J]. 中国农业资源与区划, 2022,43(9):263-272. She Z Y, Sun L, Chen S W. Study on the effect and mechanism of agricultural insurance on agricultural carbon sequestration efficiency [J]. China Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, 2022,43(9):263-272.
[29]	闵继胜,胡浩.中国农业生产温室气体排放量的测算[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2012,22(7):21-27. Min J S, Hu H. Calculation of greenhouse gases emission from agricultural production in China [J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2012,22(7):21-27.
[30]	IPCC.IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories volume 4:Agriculture, forestry and other land use [R]. Geneva, Switzerland:2006.
[31]	胡向东,王济民.中国畜禽温室气体排放量估算[J]. 农业工程学报, 2010,26(10):247-252. Hu X D, Wang J M. Estimation of livestock greenhouse gases discharge in China [J]. Journal of Agricultural Engineering, 2010,26(10):247-252.
[32]	李克让.土地利用变化和温室气体净排放与陆地生态系统碳循环[M]. 北京:气象出版社, 2002:1-310. Li K R. Land use change, net greenhouse gas emissions and carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystem [M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press, 2002:1-310.
[33]	韩召迎,孟亚利,徐娇,等.区域农田生态系统碳足迹时空差异分析——以江苏省为案例[J]. 农业环境科学学报, 2012,31(5):1034-1041. Han Z Y, Meng Y L, Xu J, et al. Temporal and spatial difference in carbon footprint of regional farmland ecosystem:Taking Jiangsu province as a case [J]. Journal of Agro-Environment Science, 2012, 31(5):1034-1041.
[34]	段华平,张悦,赵建波,等.中国农田生态系统的碳足迹分析[J]. 水土保持学报, 2011,25(5):203-208. Duan H P, Zhang Y, Zhao J B, et al. Carbon footprint analysis of farmland ecosystem in China [J]. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 2011,25(5):203-208.
[35]	Breiman L. Random forests [J]. Machine Learning, 2001,45(1):5-32.
[36]	孙艳伟,王润,郭青海,等.基于人居尺度的中国城市热岛强度时空变化及其驱动因子解析[J]. 环境科学, 2021,42(1):501-512. Sun Y W, Wang R, Guo Q H, et al. Spatial and temporal variation of urban heat island intensity in China based on human settlements scale and its driving factors [J]. Environmental Science, 2021,42(1):501-512.
[37]	魏梦升,颜廷武,罗斯炫.规模经营与技术进步对农业绿色低碳发展的影响——基于设立粮食主产区的准自然实验[J]. 中国农村经济, 2023,458(2):41-65. Wei M S, Yan T W, Luo S X. The impacts of scale management and technological progress on green and low-carbon development of agriculture:A quasi-natural experiment based on the establishment of major grain-producing areas [J]. Chinese Rural Economy, 2023,458(2):41-65.
[38]	Cheng K, Pan G, Smith P, et al. Carbon footprint of China's crop production-An estimation using agro-statistics data over 1993~2007[J]. Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment, 2011,142(3):231-237.
[39]	张慧芳,赵荣钦,肖连刚,等.不同灌溉模式下农业水能消耗及碳排放研究[J]. 灌溉排水学报, 2021,40(12):119-126. Zhang H F, Zhao R Q, Xiao L G, et al. The effects of irrigation methods on carbon emission and water-energy consumption of crop production [J]. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage, 2021,40(12):119-126
[40]	马铭婧,郗凤明,尹岩,等.碳中和视角下秸秆处置方式对碳源汇的贡献[J]. 应用生态学报, 2022,33(5):1331-1339. Ma M J, Xi F M, Yin Y, et al. Contribution of straw disposal to carbon source and sink under the framework of carbon neutrality [J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2022,33(5):1331-1339
[41]	张国,逯非,赵红,等.我国农作物秸秆资源化利用现状及农户对秸秆还田的认知态度[J]. 农业环境科学学报, 2017,36(5):981-988. Zhang G, Lu F, Zhao H, et al. Residue usage and farmer' recognition and attitude toward residue retention in China's croplands [J]. Journal of Agro-Environment Science, 2017,36(5):981-988.
[42]	鲁庆尧,杨春红.我国粮食种植碳排放量变化趋势与驱动因素研究[J]. 经济问题, 2023,(1):114-121. Lu Q Y, Yang C H. Study on the change trend and driving factors of carbon emissions from grain cultivation in China [J]. Economic Problems, 2023,(1):114-121.
[43]	刘琼,肖海峰.农地经营规模与财政支农政策对农业碳排放的影响[J]. 资源科学, 2020,42(6):1063-1073. Liu Q, Xiao H F. The impact of farmland management scale and fiscal policy for supporting agriculture on agricultural carbon emission [J]. Resources Science, 2020,42(6):1063-1073.
[44]	刘杨,刘鸿斌.山东省农业碳排放特征、影响因素及达峰分析[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2022,30(4):558-569. Liu Y, Liu H B. Characteristics, influence factors, and prediction of agricultural carbon emissions in Shandong province [J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2022,30(4):558-569.
[45]	贺青,张俊飚,张虎.农业机械化对农业碳排放的影响——来自粮食主产区的实证[J]. 统计与决策, 2023,39(1):88-92. He Q, Zhang J B, Zhang H. The impact of agricultural mechanization on agricultural carbon emission:an empirical study from major grain-producing areas [J]. Statistics and Decision, 2023,39(1):88-92.
[46]	蔡荣,陈佩.农业机械化有助于化肥投入效率提升吗?——以小麦为例[J]. 中国农业大学学报, 2021,26(8):265-274. Cai R, Chen P. Does agricultural machinery service improve fertilizer input efficiency:Take wheat as example [J]. Journal of China Agricultural University, 2021,26(8):265-274.