能耗双控转向碳双控的政策影响评估——基于安徽省动态CGE模型

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Abstract Using Anhui Province as a case study, a hybrid dynamic computable general equilibrium model was developed to analyze the energy-economic impacts of optimizing the energy consumption “dual control” and transitioning to the carbon “dual control” policy. The study found that excluding newly installed renewable energy within the energy “dual control” policy can significantly bolster the support for renewable energy development and improvement of energy efficiency. By 2035, the proportion of renewable energy in electricity generation is expected to reach 27.9%, with a corresponding reduction in GDP loss of 0.2 percentage points. Transitioning to the carbon "dual control" policy is projected to further promote renewable energy development, create additional space for energy consumption, and enhance economic efficiency, with an additional reduction in GDP loss of 0.05 percentage points. The implementation of control policies will result in both winners and losers across various industries, while shifting to the carbon "dual control" policy could mitigate output losses in the losing industries. The industry output change rates range from -20.6% to 10.3% by 2035. The recommendation is to persist in implementing optimized measures for the energy consumption "dual control" system and to gradually transition to the carbon "dual control" policy during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. This should be aligned with forward-looking industrial planning and necessary just transition measures to reduce the adverse impacts to industries, while concurrently facilitating the achievement of medium- and long-term dual carbon targets amidst the minimization of short-term policy adjustment fluctuations.

Key words： energy consumption “dual control” carbon “dual control” Anhui Province computable general equilibrium model

Received: 04 September 2023

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	AN Kang-xin
	LIU Mi-ke
	FAN Shu-ting
	WANG Can

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AN Kang-xin,LIU Mi-ke,FAN Shu-ting等. Impact of transition from the energy consumption “dual control” to the carbon “dual control”: a CGE-based case study of Anhui[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2024, 44(4): 1795-1804.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2024/V44/I4/1795

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