石羊河流域生态系统碳储量时空变化及多情景模拟

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Abstract Take Shiyang River Basin as an example, the InVEST model was used to evaluate the effect of land use change on carbon storage from 1990 to 2020, and the coupled PLUS model was used to simulate land use change and its impact on carbon storage in 2035 under the scenarios of natural development, ecological protection, water resources constraint and economic development. The results showed that: The land use of Shiyang River Basin was mainly unused land, grassland and cultivated land, accounting for 93% of the total area of the basin. From 1990 to 2020, the area of cultivated land, water area and construction land in Shiyang River basin showed an increasing trend, while the other land area showed a decreasing trend. Under the multi-scenario simulation from 2020 to 2035, the area of forest land and grassland increased significantly only in the ecological scenario. From 1990 to 2020, carbon storage in the basin showed an increasing trend, and grassland, unused land and cultivated land contributed the most carbon storage, accounting for 86% of the total carbon. From 2020 to 2035, carbon storage increases under all four scenarios, but the ecological scenario has the most significant increase, with a total increase of 3.75×10⁶t. Under natural and economic development scenarios, forest land and grassland were mostly converted into cultivated land, resulting in a greater loss of carbon storage. Under the water resource constraint scenario, cultivated land was mainly transferred to grassland and construction land, and the carbon storage carried by the conversion between other regions was basically balanced. Under the ecological protection scenario, the transfer area of forest land, grassland and other ecological land was larger than the transfer area, which increases the regional carbon storage. The results of this study were expected to provide scientific basis for improving carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystem and planning future territorial space in Shiyang River Basin.

Key words： carbon storage InVEST model PLUS model land use Shiyang River basin

Received: 11 November 2023

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X171.1

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	Articles by authors
	XU Ao-kang
	HU Meng-jun
	SHI Jing
	MENG Xiang-yun
	BAI Qing-zhu
	GUO Jing-ling
	LIU Shuo-ya
	ZHANG Si-yang

Cite this article:

XU Ao-kang,HU Meng-jun,SHI Jing等. Spatial and temporal variability of ecosystem carbon storages and multi-scenario simulation in the Shiyang River basin[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2024, 44(6): 3365-3375.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2024/V44/I6/3365

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