基于系统动力学的草地生态系统稳定性评价——以三江源国家公园黄河源玛多县为例

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Abstract This study focused on Maduo County, where the Yellow River Source Area of the Sanjiangyuan National Park located. An evaluation framework for ecosystem stability was constructed from the perspectives of resilience, resistance, persistence and variability, and proposed rational quantification and grading criteria by analyzing the similarities and disparities among these indicators. Based on this framework, the ecological evolution trends in Maduo County from 2000 to 2100 by developing a dynamic ecosystem simulation model with system dynamics method, and assessed the ecosystem stability based on the simulation results were further simulated. The characteristic return time of the Maduo County ecosystem is approximately 48.74 years was found, indicating an average level of resilience. The ratio of the grazing intensity at the time of ecosystem collapse to the current grazing intensity is 4.15, indicating robust resistance. The duration of the initial state spans around 79.04 years, demonstrating a positive trend and strong persistence. The variation rate is approximately 25.20%, indicating high variability. The comprehensive evaluation indicated a critical state of ecosystem stability in Maduo County, highlighting the need to enhance the ecosystem resilience and reduce variability to ensure the sustainable and healthy succession of the ecosystem.

Key words： stability resilience resistance variability system dynamics Maduo county

Received: 15 November 2023

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X171.1

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	LI Jia-ying
	HU Guan-zheng
	ZENG Wei-hua

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LI Jia-ying,HU Guan-zheng,ZENG Wei-hua. Assessment of grassland ecosystem stability based on system dynamics——taking Maduo County, the source of the Yellow River in Sanjiangyuan National Park, as an example[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2024, 44(6): 3419-3433.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2024/V44/I6/3419

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