黄河流域水稀缺风险评价

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Abstract Based on the characteristics and causes of water scarcity in the Yellow River Basin (YRB), this study proposed a watershed water scarcity risk (WSR) assessment framework that integrates water quantity, quality, and ecological water. Based on this framework, the direct water scarcity risk (DWSR) of 42 sectors in 90 cities in the YRB in 2017 was assessed. A city-scale environmentally extended multi-regional input-output model (MRIO) was constructed to evaluate the indirect water scarcity risk (IWSR) caused by inter-city trade. The results show that the DWSR and IWSR in the YRB were 2894.149 and 3446.408 billion yuan, respectively, indicating that the indirect impact caused by trade is more significant than the direct impact caused by water resources shortage. Both DWSR and IWSR exhibited spatial variability among cities, but the high-risk cities showed apparent spatial agglomeration and overlap, mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the basin, especially in the cities of Shandong and Henan provinces, such as Weifang, Zibo, and Zhengzhou. The transfer of IWSR was mainly caused by inter-city trade within provinces, with no clear hotspots for inter-provincial risk transfer; Agriculture, Chemicals, Petroleum, coking, and nuclear fuel were the sectors with higher DWSR and IWSR exports. It is recommended to comprehensively strengthen WSR management for the identified key cities and sectors and synergistically promote water saving and control, water quality improvement and ecological water security, so as to promote the conservation and efficient utilization of water resources in the YRB.

Key words： Yellow River basin water scarcity risk transfer pathway integrated assessment multi-regional input-output model (MRIO)

Received: 07 October 2023

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	LU Zhong-gui
	KANG Zhe
	LI Wei
	HUANG Ming-hui

Cite this article:

LU Zhong-gui,KANG Zhe,LI Wei等. Water scarcity risk assessment in the Yellow River basin[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2024, 44(6): 3455-3465.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2024/V44/I6/3455

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