基于PLUS模型的乌鲁木齐市“三生”空间多情景模拟

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Abstract Based on the land use data of Urumqi in 2000, 2010 and 2020, this paper uses PLUS model to select 15 driving factors including social economy and natural environment to simulate the space changes of "production-livelihood-ecology" in Urumqi in 2030 under four scenarios,development of production, living standard, ecological protection and comprehensive optimization.The results show that from 2000 to 2020, the grassland area continuously decreased, shrinking by 614.06km². The cultivated land first slightly increased and then significantly decreased, totaling a decrease of 226.39km² .The area of other land types showed a trend of continuous increase.the change degree of grassland and unused land is the most dramatic. From the results of multi-scenario simulation, in the four scenarios, the living space area shows an expanding trend, and the maximum expansion degree reaches 85.86km², under the scenarios of development of production and living standard, the area of production space expands by 3.13km² and 38.17km² respectively, while the area of ecological space shrinks by 30.11km² and 124.03km² respectively, under the scenario of ecological protection and comprehensive optimization, the area of production space shrinking and the maximum shrink degree reaches 149.8km², the spatial change trend of land use type under the comprehensive optimization scenario is similar to the simulation result of ecological protection scenario, but the difference is that the change trend of the former is relatively moderate. Altogether, the simulation results under the comprehensive optimization scenario are more in line with the requirements of urban development and ecological protection. Urumqi City must seize the opportunity, solve the contradiction between urban development and ecological protection in time, so that it can embark on a sustainable development path.

Key words： Production-Livelihood-Ecology Space Land use change PLUS model Multi-scenario simulation Urumqi City

Received: 02 November 2023

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	ZHOU Man-yi
	WANG Cheng-wu

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ZHOU Man-yi,WANG Cheng-wu. Multi-scenario simulation of “production-livelihood-ecological” space in Urumqi based on PLUS[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2024, 44(7): 4021-4030.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2024/V44/I7/4021

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