基于OCO-2卫星的中国人为碳排放时空变化与社会经济影响分析

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Abstract The spatiotemporal dynamics of column-averaged CO₂ dry air mole fractions, as captured by OCO-2 satellite XCO₂ data, were meticulously examined across China from 2015 to 2021. This investigation harnessed the synergistic capabilities of spatiotemporal kriging methodologies and advanced XCO₂ anomaly computation techniques. Additionally, the quantitative influence of socioeconomic determinants on XCO₂ anomalies was elucidated through the application of the random forest algorithm. The findings revealed a discernible cyclical temporal pattern in XCO₂ anomalies over the study period, with pronounced seasonal maxima during the winter months. Geographically, the anomalies exhibited a gradient distribution, with elevated concentrations in the eastern and southern regions, juxtaposed against lower levels in the western and northern territories. The spatial configuration of XCO₂ anomalies derived from OCO-2 satellite observations was found to be largely congruent with anthropogenic emission inventories. Notably, at broader spatial scales and in regions characterized by higher emission intensities, XCO₂ anomalies more effectively encapsulated the spatial distribution attributes of anthropogenic carbon emissions. At the provincial level, variables including GDP, local fiscal expenditure, population density, and vehicle ownership exhibited a significant positive correlation with XCO₂ anomalies. Among these, GDP demonstrated the most pronounced association, with correlation and contribution ratios of 0.56 and 0.46, respectively. Furthermore, energy intensity, industrial composition, and energy consumption profiles were identified as consequential determinants contributing to XCO₂ anomalies. These research outcomes substantiate the viability of leveraging satellite remote sensing to monitor spatiotemporal fluctuations in anthropogenic carbon emissions and to dissect their underlying drivers across China. This approach is anticipated to furnish critical insights for ecological conservation, environmental stewardship, and the formulation of informed strategies for carbon mitigation initiatives.

Key words： OCO-2 carbon satellite anthropogenic carbon emissions spatiotemporal trends XCO₂ anomaly

Received: 27 May 2024

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	GAO Shun
	OU Jin-pei
	HUANG Xiao-lei
	HUANG Ying-jian
	XIE Ji-teng

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GAO Shun,OU Jin-pei,HUANG Xiao-lei等. Spatiotemporal trends and socio-economic impacts of anthropogenic carbon emissions in China based on OCO-2GHG satellite data[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2024, 44(12): 7024-7035.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2024/V44/I12/7024

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