土壤中金属元素生态安全阈值预测模型的构建

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Abstract This study collected 616 toxicological data of 8 elements on 5 species and 3 microbial processes in 31 Chinese soils through literature collection, attempting to construct a new model for predicting the toxicity of limited elements in soil data—the Quantitative ion characteristic activity relationship (s-QICAR) model. Firstly, based on the normalization method of soil properties, the toxicity values (logEC₁₀; 1.42~3.35) of 8 elements to 5 species and 3 microbial processes were obtained under three soil scenarios of acidic, neutral, and alkaline. On this basis, the relationship between the 23 structural characteristic parameters of elements and their corresponding biological toxicity values was analyzed, and 24s-QICAR models (R²=0.70~0.98; P=0.001~0.023) were established using the covalent radius (CR) of elements. Furthermore, s-QICAR was used to predict the logEC₁₀ (1.44~3.20) of V, As, Se, and Sn for 8species. Combined with the species sensitivity distribution curve, the HC₅values of these four elements protecting 95% of organisms under three scenarios were calculated. After correction, the predicted no-effect concentrations of the four elements in acidic, neutral, and alkaline soil scenarios were V:13,16,17mg/kg; As:10,13,15mg/kg;Se:4.9,7.2,8.4mg/kg;Sn:42,44,45mg/kg, and the ecological risk threshold map for these 4elements was drawn. This study establishes a new method applicable to the ecological risk of soil elements in China, providing scientific basis for soil environmental risk assessment and management.

Key words： metal elements quantitative ion character-activity relationships model soil organisms ecological risk

Received: 06 June 2024

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	Articles by authors
	SHI Wan-yang
	WANG Xue-dong
	BIAN Jian-lin
	LI Meng-jia
	MA Yi-bing

Cite this article:

SHI Wan-yang,WANG Xue-dong,BIAN Jian-lin等. Construction of ecological safety threshold prediction model for metal elements in soils[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2025, 45(1): 253-264.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2025/V45/I1/253

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