中国水稻甲烷排放空间格局演变与技术减缓潜力分析

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Abstract Using the inventory model, this study evaluated the tempo-spatial characteristics of methane emissions from rice cultivation at the county level and their emission intensity per unit of rice production over the period 1980~2060. A comparison of mitigation potentials was also conducted between the baseline (BAU) scenario, the conventional technical potential (TP) scenario, and the maximum technical potential (MTP) scenario. The results showed that China's rice cultivation methane emissions decreased and then increased from 1980 to 2020, and that they decreased by 19% in 2020 compared to 1980. Over the same period, the intensity of emissions declined by 46%. Under the TP and MTP scenarios, methane emissions are reduced by 26% and 70%, respectively, while emission intensity is reduced by 26% and 68%, respectively. Rice cultivation methane emissions and their intensity have shifted to the east during the period 1980~2020, with the emission gravity center moving to the northeast by 347km and the intensity gravity center moving to the southeast by 411km during this period. Both emissions and intensities decreased in counties in the southern regions, such as Hunan, Hubei, and Jiangxi. Rice cultivation is gradually being replaced in high-intensity regions such as Xinjiang, Shandong, and Henan, which is resulting in declining emissions. Although emissions in northeastern regions have increased, their intensity levels remain relatively low. Water management for rice has the greatest mitigation potential, contributing more than 60% of the total mitigation potential. There is a high mitigation potential in regions with high emissions, such as Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Heilongjiang, and Guangdong, where the average mitigation potential is twice that of other regions.

Key words： rice cultivation methane emission intensity mitigation potential spatial gravity centre

Received: 07 August 2024

PACS:

X51

Corresponding Authors: 陈敏鹏,教授,minpeng.chen@ruc.edu.cn E-mail: minpeng.chen@ruc.edu.cn

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	LI Si-qi
	HUA Er-shi
	CHEN Min-peng

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LI Si-qi,HUA Er-shi,CHEN Min-peng. Spatial evolution of rice methane emission and technology mitigation potential in China[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2025, 45(3): 1218-1230.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2025/V45/I3/1218

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