黄土高原生态系统碳储量情景模拟与驱动因素——基于PLUS–InVEST-Geodector模型的研究

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Abstract We used the PLUS model to predict the land use pattern under different development scenarios in 2030 in the Loess Plateau, an important ecological barrier in China, and applied the InVEST-Geodector model to analyze the spatiotemporal changes and driving factors in ecosystem carbon storage from 2020 to 2030. The findings were as follows: (1) The area of cropland will decrease under the natural development and ecological protection scenarios; the area of grassland decreases significantly under the cropland protection scenario, and forests and waters are effectively protected under all three scenarios. (2) The ecosystem carbon storage under the natural development, ecological protection, and cropland protection scenarios is 4.922, 5.021, and 4.922Pg, respectively. Compared with those in 2020, carbon storage will increase by 8.07, 37.22, and 8.07Tg, respectively. Carbon storage has obvious spatial heterogeneity, with high carbon density in the northern Qinling Mountains, Taihang Mountains, and Lvliang Mountains and low carbon density in Erdos City and its surrounding areas. Changes in carbon storage are closely related to the changes in the number of land classes and conversion of land use types. In conclusion, the ecological protection scenario is more in line with the future development needs of the study area. (3) The core determinants of ecosystem carbon storage are slope and precipitation, and the dominating combinations of factors driving regional differences and changes in carbon storage are the interactions of slope, soil type, or average annual temperature content with other variables.

Key words： ecosystem carbon storage scenario simulation driving factors PLUS-InVEST-Geodector model the Loess Plateau

Received: 08 October 2024

PACS:

X171.1

Corresponding Authors: 张寒,责任作者,教授,hanzhang@nwafu.edu.cn E-mail: hanzhang@nwafu.edu.cn

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	LIU Kang
	ZHANG Han
	ZHANG Dao-jun
	ZHENG Wei-wei
	ZHANG Chao-zheng

Cite this article:

LIU Kang,ZHANG Han,ZHANG Dao-jun等. Scenario simulation and driving factors of ecosystem carbon storage in the Loess Plateau: A study based on the PLUS-InVEST-Geodector model[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2025, 45(4): 2159-2170.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2025/V45/I4/2159

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