Socio-economic drivers of surface water bodies in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

YANG Zhen-hua; ZHAO Tong-tie-gang; TIAN Yu; YANG Fang; ZHENG Yan-hui; CHEN Xiao-hong

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China Environmental Science ›› 2023, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (12) : 6778-6787.

Environmental Impact Assessment and Management

Socio-economic drivers of surface water bodies in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

YANG Zhen-hua¹, ZHAO Tong-tie-gang², TIAN Yu³, YANG Fang⁴, ZHENG Yan-hui⁵, CHEN Xiao-hong²

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Abstract

Focusing on the Great Bay Area of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao (GBA), the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) of surface water and its socio-economic drivers were identified in the paper.Specifically, the Landsat images were utilized to extract the long-term sequence of surface water dynamics, the EKC was obtained through land use/cover change analysis and the driving factors of long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuation were illustrated. The results shown that the urban surface water bodies in the GBA generally showed a nonlinear characteristic of first rise and then fall, and depended on the transformation characteristics between water bodies and cropland and impervious surfaces in the past 30a, with the surface water body area increasing by 1323.14km² from 1990 to 2000, and then fluctuating and decreasing from 2000 onwards; the EKC of the surface water rate and GDP per unit area generally showed a N-type characteristics of rapid decline and gentle rebound reflect the loss/gain of water bodies by anthropogenic cover and ecological restoration/reservoir expansion projects; the DARDL-UECM model clarifies the accuracy of the simulation results (R²>0.7, P<0.000) and the contribution of factors. Regardless of the short-term fluctuation stage or long-term equilibrium stage, ratios of impervious surface, forested land and cropland area share are the main driving factors for urban surface water bodies, and the mean values of the cumulative contributions of the three factors are 0.96 and 0.93.

Key words

Environmental Kuznets Curve / Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area / land use/cover change / socio-economic drivers / surface water body

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YANG Zhen-hua, ZHAO Tong-tie-gang, TIAN Yu, YANG Fang, ZHENG Yan-hui, CHEN Xiao-hong. Socio-economic drivers of surface water bodies in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area[J]. China Environmental Science. 2023, 43(12): 6778-6787

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