基于随机森林的高分辨率PM<sub>2.5</sub>浓度时空变化模拟——以中原城市群核心区为例

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Abstract In order to explore the estimation method of near-surface PM_2.5 concentration in urban scale or smaller area, two random forest models, RF (PM_2.5~TOA) and RF (PM_2.5~Image), were constructed by taking the PM_2.5 concentration measured by the air monitoring station as the dependent variable, taking the top of atmosphere reflectance data (TOA) calculated from MODIS L1B satellite images and the eigenvalues directly extracted from the images (Image) as two groups of main independent variables, and integrating the auxiliary factors of meteorological features, topographic features and temporal and spatial features. Finally, RF (PM_2.5~Image) was selected to estimate the monthly mean concentration of near-surface PM_2.5 in the core area of Central Plains Urban Agglomeration under the spatial resolution of 250m in 2020. The results showed that: the coefficient of determination (R²) of the two models were 0.93, and the root mean square prediction errors ( RMSE) were 9.23, 8.28μg/m³, respectively. When the two models reached a similar degree of R², a lower prediction deviation was found in RF (PM_2.5~Image), and the importance of features with spatial resolution in it higher than 250m accounts for up to 44.2%, which can more accurately describe the change of near-surface PM_2.5 concentration with a spatial resolution of 250m. The average annual concentration of PM_2.5 in the core area of the Central Plains urban agglomeration in 2020 was 53.80μg/m³, and the pollution phenomenon was serious, with 0~8 pollution processes occurring in different units. On the whole, there was a spatial differentiation characteristic of increasing from southwest and northwest mountainous areas to eastern plain and a time variation pattern of high in winter, low in summer and transition in spring and autumn.

Key words： PM_2.5 random forest MODIS L1B 250m Central Plains Urban Agglomeration Core Area

Received: 03 November 2022

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	LU Jun-mo
	ZENG Sui-ping
	ZENG Jian
	WANG Sen
	SONG Yuan-zhen

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LU Jun-mo,ZENG Sui-ping,ZENG Jian等. High resolution simulation of temporal and spatial variation of PM_2.5 concentration based on random forest——A case study of Central Plains Urban Agglomeration Core Area[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2023, 43(7): 3299-3311.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2023/V43/I7/3299

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