气象舒适条件对呼吸系统疾病的影响

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Abstract The distributed lag nonlinear model and generalized additive model were applied to study the exposureresponse relationship between meteorological conditions and the number of emergency room (ER) visits for respiratory diseases, from 2009 to 2012 in Beijing, China. The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) was used as an indicator of climate thermal condition. Immediate influence of high temperatures and lag effect of low temperatures on the incidence were revealed. Relative humidity (RH) <30% significantly increased the risk of onset, and its lag effect reached more than 10days. The RR of wind speed 3m/s was the smallest. When considering the comprehensive effect of multiple factors, children (≤ 14years) were more sensitive to heat stress than cold stress, especially the ‘hot and humidity’ circumstance. While for adults (15~59years), the impact of cold stress was particularly significant, which lagged for 1~2days and lasted a long time. The elders (>60years) were more vulnerable to cold stress than heat stress, the condition that low temperatures and low humidity occur simultaneously should be paid particular attention. Employing UTCI as a characterization of the comprehensive thermal state of the environment is a feasible way to investigate the effects of environmental conditions on the incidence of respiratory diseases, which may enhance related theoretical basis and provide new ideas for disease forecasting and early warning.

Key words： respiratory system disease meteorological condition comfort level comprehensive impact lag effect

Received: 12 June 2017

PACS:	X503.1
	P49

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	Articles by authors
	MA Pan
	WANG Shi-gong
	SHANG Ke-zheng
	LI Tan-shi
	YIN Ling

Cite this article:

MA Pan,WANG Shi-gong,SHANG Ke-zheng等. The impact of meteorological comfort conditions on respiratory disease[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2018, 38(1): 374-382.

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http://manu36.magtech.com.cn/Jweb_zghjkx/EN/ OR http://manu36.magtech.com.cn/Jweb_zghjkx/EN/Y2018/V38/I1/374

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