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| Investigations on the medium-to-long term early warning of water environmental carrying capacity-A case study of Kunming City |
| CUI Dan, CHEN Xin, ZENG Wei-hua |
| School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China |
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Abstract The early warning system of water environmental carrying capacity (WECC) was built on the basis of the dynamical simulation method of system dynamics (SD).Kunming was considered to study the overload warning of WECC.The obtained results illustrated that during 2015~2025,the comprehensive index of the WECC of Kunming would gradually increase from 1.78 to 2.22,indicating that the water environment overload condition would deteriorate.The system coupling coordination degree of Kunming would experience a fluctuation between 0.5 and 0.8,and the total efficacy of the society would be greater than that of the water environment,reflecting an antagonistic relationship between the social-economic subsystem and the water environment subsystem.The alert level would change from medium to high and the color of signal light would change from orange to red,indicating that Kunming would be continuously threatened with overloading of WECC in the future.
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Received: 26 July 2017
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