中国大气污染物重点行业减排分析——基于假设抽取法和价格传导影响系数

Abstract
Figure/Table
References (38)
Related Citation (11)

Download: PDF (731 KB) HTML (1 KB)
Export: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)

Abstract

Based on the emission data of SO₂, NO_x, soot and dust of industries in China, the hypothetical extraction method (HEM) and the input-output price model were used to calculate the demand emission, output emission and net transferred emissions (NTE). The impacts of the key industries on the industries' demand emission reduction were simulated under different scenarios, and the price coefficients from pollution reduction costs of the key industries were calculated. The results showed that the largest amount of air pollutants were transferred from the power and gas (POW), Nonmetal Products (NONP) and Metals Mining, Smelting and Pressing (METM) in 2014; under the scenarios of 15% reduction rates from the three key industries, the reductions of SO₂, NO_x, soot and dust emissions accounted for 62.12%, 72.65% and 67.11% of emission reduction targets of the 13th Five-Year Plan respectively. The power and gas (POW) had the greatest impact on emission reduction. If air pollution costs were internalized, the price of other industry would be influenced by POW price in varying degrees. To be specific, the Water Production (WAT), Metal Products (METP), Metals Mining, Smelting and Pressing (METM) and Nonmetal Products (NONP) were most strongly influenced and the total price transmission coefficient was 0.272, 0.151, 0.148 and 0.131 respectively. The government should establish a reasonable mechanism to allocate the costs of emission reduction. This mechanism can not only subsidize the reduction costs of major industries but also stimulate the other industries to improve technology in saving demand from those basic industrial products such as electricity.

Key words： emission intensity net transferred emissions hypothetical extraction method emission scenarios price transmission influence coefficient

Received: 06 September 2017

:	X32
	X82
	X196

	Service

	E-mail this article
	Add to my bookshelf
	Add to citation manager
	E-mail Alert
	RSS
	Articles by authors
	MAO Guo-zhu
	LUO Yin-cheng
	WANG Yuan
	HE Wei-wei
	LIU Hui-wen

Cite this article:

MAO Guo-zhu,LUO Yin-cheng,WANG Yuan等. Analysis on industry emission reduction of air pollutants based on HEM and price transmission influence coefficient[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2018, 38(4): 1561-1569.

URL:

http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2018/V38/I4/1561

[1]	Yang G, Wang Y, Zeng Y, et al. Rapid health transition in China, 1990~2010:findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010[J]. Lancet, 2013,381(9882):1987-2015.
[2]	王晓琦,周颖,程水源,等.典型城市冬季PM2.5水溶性离子污染特征与传输规律研究[J]. 中国环境科学, 2016,36(8):2289-2296.
[3]	卫菲菲,刘昊,陆晓波,等.南京市大气细颗粒物二次组分的时空变化特征[J]. 中国环境科学, 2017,37(8):2866-2876.
[4]	Yang L, Cheng S, Wang X, et al. Source identification and health impact of PM2.5, in a heavily polluted urban atmosphere in China[J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2013,75(4):265-269.
[5]	Huang R J, Zhang Y, Bozzetti C, et al. High secondary aerosol contribution to particulate pollution during haze events in China[J]. Nature, 2014,514(7521):218-222.
[6]	大气污染防治计划[Z]. 中华人民共和国国务院, 2013. http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2013-09/12/content_2486773.htm.
[7]	"十三五"节能减排综合工作方案[Z]. 中华人民共和国国务院, 2016. http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2017-01/05/Content_5156789.htm.
[8]	Wang Y, Lai N, Mao G, et al. Air pollutant emissions from economic sectors in China:A linkage analysis[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2017,77:250-260.
[9]	Wang Y, Wang W, Mao G, et al. Industrial CO2, emissions in China based on the hypothetical extraction method:Linkage analysis[J]. Energy Policy, 2013,62(7):1238-1244.
[10]	Zhao Y, Liu Y, Wang S, et al. Inter-regional linkage analysis of industrial CO2, emissions in China:An application of a hypothetical extraction method[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2016, 61:428-437.
[11]	Mi Z, Zhang Y, Guan D, et al. Consumption-based emission accounting for Chinese cities[J]. Applied Energy, 2016,184:1073-1081.
[12]	Yu Y, Feng K, Hubacek K. China's unequal ecological exchange[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2014,47(47):156-163.
[13]	Du H, Guo J, Mao G, et al. CO2, emissions embodied in China-US trade:Input-output analysis based on the emergy/dollar ratio[J]. Energy Policy, 2011,39(10):5980-5987.
[14]	Skelton A, Guan D, Peters G P, et al. Mapping Flows of Embodied Emissions in the Global Production System[J]. Environmental Science & Technology, 2011,45(24):10516-10523.
[15]	Hristu-Varsakelis D, Karagianni S, Pempetzoglou M, et al. Optimizing production with energy and GHG emission constraints in Greece:An input-output analysis[J]. Energy Policy, 2010,38(3):1566-1577.
[16]	López L A, Arce G, Zafrilla J. Financial crisis, virtual carbon in global value chains, and the importance of linkage effects. The Spain-china case[J]. Environmental Science & Technology, 2014,48(1):36-44.
[17]	钟悦之,蒋春来,宋晓晖,等.火电行业"十三五"主要大气污染物减排潜力情景分析研究[J]. 环境科学与管理, 2016,41(12):58-62.
[18]	李晔,包磊,李文翔,等.中国道路运输行业CO2和污染减排潜力情景分析[J]. 同济大学学报(自然科学版), 2016,44(2):242-248.
[19]	王冰妍,陈长虹,黄成,等.低碳发展下的大气污染物和CO2排放情景分析-上海案例研究[J]. 能源研究与信息, 2004,20(3):137-145.
[20]	Wang T, Watson J. Scenario analysis of China's emissions pathways in the 21st century for low carbon transition[J]. Energy Policy, 2010,38(7):3537-3546.
[21]	Cai W J, Wang C, Wang K, et al. Scenario analysis on CO emissions reduction potential in China's electricity sector[J]. Energy Policy, 2007,35(4):2320-2335.
[22]	Wang K, Wang C, Lu X D, et al. Scenario analysis on CO emissions reduction potential in China's iron and steel industry[J]. Energy Policy, 2007,35(4):2320-2335.
[23]	Ou X, Zhang X, Chang S. Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport:Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions[J]. Energy Policy, 2010,38(8):3943-3956.
[24]	Kroeze C, Seitzinger S P, Domingues R, et al. Future trends in worldwide river nitrogen transport and related nitrous oxide emissions:a scenario analysis[J]. Scientific world journal, 2014, 1(3):328-335.
[25]	中华人民共和国统计局.中国环境统计年鉴[M]. 北京:中国统计出版社, 2015.
[26]	中华人民共和国统计局.中国能源统计年鉴[M]. 北京:中国统计出版社, 2015.
[27]	Leontief W W. The Structure of the American Economy[M]. Oxford University Press, New York. 1941.
[28]	Strassert G. Zur bestimmung strategischer sektoren mit hilfe von input-output modellen[J]. Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, 1968,182:211-215.
[29]	Schultz S. Approaches to identifying key sectors empirically by means of input-output analysis[J]. Journal of Development Studies, 1977,14(1):77-96.
[30]	Cella G. The input-output measurement of interindustry linkages[J]. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1984,46:73-84.
[31]	Clements B J. On the decomposition and normalization of interindustry linkages[J]. Economic Letters, 1990,33:337-340.
[32]	Duarte R, Sánchez-Chóliz J, Bielsa J. Water use in the Spanish economy:an input-output approach[J]. Ecological Economics, 2002,43(1):71-85.
[33]	Guerra A I, Sancho F. Measuring energy linkages with the hypothetical extraction method:An application to Spain[J]. Energy Economics, 2010,32(4):831-837.
[34]	Cai J, Leung P S, Pan M, et al. Economic linkage impacts of Hawaii's longline fishing regulations[J]. Fisheries Research, 2005,74(1-3):232-242.
[35]	Ali Y. Measuring CO2 emission linkages with the hypothetical extraction method (HEM)[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2015,54:171-183.
[36]	Zhao Y, Zhang Z, Wang S, et al. Linkage analysis of sectoral CO2 emissions based on the hypothetical extraction method in South Africa[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2015,103:916-924.
[37]	顾海兵.对投入产出价格变动模型的推导分析及评价[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 1994,(6):50-54.
[38]	顾海兵.对投入产出的产出变动模型的推导分析及其应用[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 1995,(3):66-70.