中国的能源回弹效应及其对实现“十三五”节能目标的影响

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Abstract A recursive dynamic CGE model for Chinese energy-economic analysis was developed in this paper. Based on the model, the rebound effect of energy efficiency improvement of the whole economy was firstly simulated, then the rebound effect of only one kind of energy efficiency improvement with coal, oil, natural gas and electric power were simulated respectively, and then the rebound effect of energy efficiency improvement of energy-intensive industries was simulated. In the end, the variation tendency of energy rebound effect of China in 2012~2020 and its impacts on achieving the energy conservation target in the 13th Five~Year Plan were simulated. It was indicated by the results that energy rebound effect did exist in China and it was about 36% for the whole economy. Increasing energy efficiency of the whole economy was better for energy conservation of China, and the energy efficiency improvement was good for decrease of coal consumption, but increase of electric power utilization of some industries would be resulted. Slow upward tendency for energy rebound effect of China in 2012~2020 was showed, and challenges would be faced to achieve the energy conservation target in the 13^th Five-Year Plan if no supporting measures had been adopted in the meanwhile.

Key words： energy rebound effect CGE model the 13^th Five-Year Plan energy conservation China

Received: 21 November 2017

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	Articles by authors
	PANG Jun
	GONG Ya-zhen
	SHI Yuan-chang
	LI Zi-xuan

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PANG Jun,GONG Ya-zhen,SHI Yuan-chang等. Energy rebound effect in China and its impacts on achieving the energy conservation target in the 13^th Five-Year Plan[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2018, 38(5): 1979-1989.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2018/V38/I5/1979

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