中国生物质燃气产能及碳减排潜力

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Abstract

Based on the regression analysis prediction model and the source classification prediction model, the biomass gas production and the energy structure proportion between 2020 and 2050 were predicted. And the scenarios of carbon emission reduction potential were analyzed. The results showed that the regression analysis had a smaller prediction error, which stepwise regression prediction was 9.34%, slightly less than 13.99% of the multiple linear regression. The source classification model was more accurate. By 2050, biogas would increase by about 176%. And increasing the application of biomass gas in the low-carbon scenario can reduce the carbon emission by 10% in the future scenario, indicating that the vigorous development of biomass gas has a significant positive effect on carbon emission reduction and carbon cycle. Based on the status, we put forward several policy suggestions on economy, technology and market to provide theoretical guidance for further exploring of market potential on biomass gas.

Key words： biogas regression forecast scenario analysis carbon emission reduction potential

Received: 23 January 2018

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	Articles by authors
	ZHAO Xiao
	CHANG Hua-zhen
	PENG Si-yang
	WANG Wei
	WANG Shu-xiao
	MA Zhong

Cite this article:

ZHAO Xiao,CHANG Hua-zhen,PENG Si-yang等. The analysis of biomass gas production capacity and carbon emission reduction potential in China[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2018, 38(8): 3151-3159.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2018/V38/I8/3151

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