A provincial allocation model for carbon emission rights was established in this paper. Under the constraints of China's 2020 and 2030 carbon intensity targets, the provinces' allocation of carbon emission rights was carried out in stages. The results show that the distribution of carbon emission rights varies from region to region in China from 2016 to 2020. The five provinces with the most carbon emission rights quotas are Guangdong, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, Shandong and Shanxi, where the economic development level and historical carbon emissions are among the highest in the country. The five provinces with the lowest quota are Anhui, Jilin and Gansu. Ningxia and Guizhou. The pressure on emission reduction varies greatly across regions. Shanxi, Shandong, Liaoning and Shaanxi have serious shortage of carbon space at the initial node in 2016, and they need to bear greater pressures to reduce emissions. Guangdong, Jiangsu and Shanghai have relatively low emission reduction pressures. From 2021 to 2030, the distribution of carbon emission rights in each province is basically the same as that in the first stage. All provinces have surplus in carbon emission space in 2030. As of 2030, some regions (such as Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Jilin, Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia, Guizhou, etc.) have relatively limited carbon emissions, and there are still significant pressures to meet the emission reduction targets on time. Considering that different provinces and regions face different emission reduction tasks and pressures, formulating differentiated emission reduction policies and giving appropriate support to policies is the key to ensuring the smooth achievement of China's emission reduction targets.