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| Stochastic simulation of groundwater pollution in coal gangue reactor based on alternative model |
| YUAN Qian, LU Wen-xi, FAN Yue, WANG Han, HAN Zheng |
| Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environmental, Minintry of Education, College of New Energy and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China |
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Abstract In order to analyze the influence of parameter uncertainly on the numerical model of groundwater pollution, aimed at making a research on Fushun Xishechang and the surrounding area, this paper firstly established a groundwater solute transport numerical simulation model by taking sulfate ion as the simulation factor. For the purpose of reducing computation load, the sensitivity analysis method was used to select the more sensitive parameters as random variables. Then, the paper constructed the Kriging surrogate model of the simulation model, that was used to finish the Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, the output results of the stochastic simulation are statistically analyzed, that was used to construct the pollutant concentration distribution function to estimate the pollution risk of single well. The probability of well 1,2 and 3 that meet the Ⅲ grade of the groundwater quality standard were 0.6%, 97.6% and 0%, respectively, which can provide a more scientific and comprehensive reference for groundwater pollution prevention and control.
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Received: 12 November 2018
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