天津郊区土壤风蚀源PM<sub>10</sub>排放清单不确定性分析

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Abstract

The emission inventory of particulate matter of wind erosion from bare soil in the suburbs of Tianjin in 2016 was estimated used PMEI-WES (Particulate Matter Emission Inventory-Wind Erosion System). Monte Carlo simulation was used to analyze the impact of the uncertainty in major meteorological parameters and soil parameters on emissions fluxes, and quantify the uncertainty of emission inventory. The results indicated that the total amount of PM₁₀ emission from wind-blown dust in the suburbs of Tianjin in 2016 was 22025.1731t. Wind speed was the most important parameter affecting emissions. The emission fluxes increased exponentially with wind speed. Soil calcium carbonate was positively correlated with emission fluxes, and soil organic matter was negatively correlated with emission fluxes. The 95% probability range of total emissions was (15237.7581t, 37434.8873t), the uncertainty rate was (-37.48%, 53.60%); the 90% probability range of total emissions was (16111.8606t, 36104.7554t), the uncertainty rate was (-33.89%, 48.14%). The uncertainty of emission amount was most significantly associated with the error of wind speed in each district. The soil parameters had a greater impact on the extreme value of uncertainty.

Key words： PM₁₀ emission inventory Monte Carlo simulation uncertainty analysis Tianjin

Received: 21 June 2019

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X513

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	Articles by authors
	HU Li-yuan
	CHEN Li
	MAO Jian
	SUN Yan-ling
	GAO Shuang
	YANG Wen
	XIAO Jian
	ZHANG Hui

Cite this article:

HU Li-yuan,CHEN Li,MAO Jian等. Uncertainty analysis of emission inventory of PM₁₀ from open source blowing dust from wind erosion of bare soil in Tianjin[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2020, 40(1): 41-51.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2020/V40/I1/41

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