某钼矿尾矿库地下水污染的随机模拟

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Abstract In order to analyze the effect of parameter uncertainty on the output of groundwater pollution numerical simulation model, in this paper, the groundwater pollution of amolybdenum mine tailings pond was taken as an example, the Mo²⁺ was selected as the simulation factor, the numerical simulation model of groundwater pollution of themolybdenum mine tailings pondwas established, the uncertainty analysis of the output resultswere carried out. In order to reduce the dimension of the substitution model, the sensitivity analysis method was used to filter out two parameters that have a greater impact on the output of the simulation model as random parameters in the model. In order toreduce the computational load from repeated calls to the numerical simulation model, the Kriging method and the Support Vector Machine method were used to establish asubstitutionmodel of the simulation model, and the accuracy of the two was compared, selecting a higher precisionsubstitution model to complete the Monte Carlo random simulation. Finally, the output results of the random simulation were analyzed and the interval estimation was carried out, to evaluate the risk of groundwater pollution exceeding the standard. The results show that when the confidence levelwas 80%, the confidence intervals of the concentration values of the well 1,2,3 were 0.71 to 2.29, 0.28 to 1.02, 1.55 to 3.25mg/L. In addition, combined with thestandard for groundwater quality and the contaminant concentration distribution function curves, the probability of the V class of water quality in well 1, 2, 3 to meet the standard for groundwaterqualitywas 99.7%, 97.1% and 99.6%. The study canprovide a more scientific and comprehensive reference for the prevention and control of groundwater pollution.

Key words： molybdenum mine tailings pond stochasticsimulation of groundwater pollution substitution model uncertainty analysis risk assessment

Received: 22 October 2019

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X523

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	Articles by authors
	WANG Zi-bo
	LU Wen-xi
	WANG Han
	LI Jiu-hui
	FAN Yue

Cite this article:

WANG Zi-bo,LU Wen-xi,WANG Han等. Stochastic simulation of the groundwater pollution in the molybdenum mine tailings pond[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2020, 40(5): 2124-2131.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2020/V40/I5/2124

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