鄱阳湖沉积物重金属污染影响因素分析——基于STIRPAT模型

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Abstract In order to explore the impact of human activities on the heavy metal pollution in the sediment of Poyang Lake, 20sampling sites were set up at the entrance, outlet and lake area of Poyang Lake in October 2017. To investigate the surface and vertical distribution characteristics of heavy metals in the sediments of Poyang Lake and evaluate their potential ecological risks. The average deposition rate of Poyang Lake sediment was calculated by ¹³⁷Cs and ²¹⁰Pb dating methods, and the heavy metal accumulation of specific years was obtained by combining the heavy metal content of stratified samples. Based on the STIRPAT model, the multiple nonlinear models of the evolution of heavy metals in the sediment of Poyang Lake, including the total population, urbanization rate, actual GDP per capita, number of green patent applications, the proportion of the second industry and the proportion of the third industry, were obtained by the partial least square regression analysis. The results showed that: (1) the heavy metal Cu pollution in the surface sediment of Poyang Lake was the most serious and the ecological risk degree was the highest, the land accumulation index was "strong" or "medium strong" pollution category, the average value of the single factor potential ecological risk index was 47.25, which was "medium" ecological risk. The average RI of the whole lake area was 107.07, the results showed that the heavy metals in the surface sediments of Poyang Lake were in the low level of ecological harm.(2) the total population in 1988~2017 was the most important positive factor affecting heavy metals Cd and Cu pollution in Poyang Lake sediment, other positive factors were the proportion of the secondary industry, the proportion of the tertiary industry, the urbanization rate and the actual GDP per capita. Regional green technology innovation capacity and environmental protection R & D investment, which was reflected by the number of green patent applications, had anegative correlation with the pollution of heavy metals Cd and Cu in the sediment of Poyang Lake.

Key words： Poyang Lake heavy metals STIRPAT model influencing factors partial least square regression

Received: 31 December 2019

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X321

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	WANG Lin-jie
	ZENG Xian-gang
	DUAN Cun-ru
	YU Hui
	YANG Mei

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WANG Lin-jie,ZENG Xian-gang,DUAN Cun-ru等. Analysis on influencing factors of heavy metal pollution in sediments of Poyang Lake based on STIRPAT Model[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2020, 40(8): 3683-3692.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2020/V40/I8/3683

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