基于最大熵模型的福建省红树林潜在适生区评估

Abstract
Figure/Table
References
Related Citation (6)

Download: PDF (1125 KB) HTML (1 KB)
Export: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)

Abstract With the current mangrove forest distribution data, a mangrove distribution model was built for Fujian Province using environmental factors including bioclimate, topography, substrate type, and sea surface temperature. The model was based on the maximum-entropy approach, which calculated a probability distribution for mangrove in the coastal Fujian. Using the model outputs, mangrove habitat suitability in Fujian Province were analyzed. Moreover, the key environmental factors affecting the mangrove distribution and their suitable regions were identified. Spatial overlay analysis was applied to obtain the priority areas and to identify gaps of mangrove conservation and restoration. The results showed that the main factors affecting the mangrove suitable habitats distribution in the coastal Fujian included sea surface temperature, atmospheric temperature, and precipitation. The potential suitable habitats were mainly located in the vicinity of Shacheng Port, Sansha Bay and Xinghua Bay, Quanzhou Bay, Xiamen Bay, Jilongjiang Estuary, Zhangjiang Estuary, and Dongshan Bay. The predicted most suitable area was about 91km². A total of 8 priority areas for mangrove conservation and restoration were identified throughout the province with the protection rate of 64.4%, among which Shacheng Port, Sansha Bay, Luoyuan Bay, and Fuqing Bay were identified as gap areas. The study provided scientific knowledge and reference for future mangrove conservation and restoration actions in Fujian Province.

Key words： mangrove Maximum Entropy habitat suitability ecosystem conservation and restoration

Received: 31 January 2020

PACS:

X171

	Service

	E-mail this article
	Add to my bookshelf
	Add to citation manager
	E-mail Alert
	RSS
	Articles by authors
	HU Wen-jia
	CHAO Bi-xiao
	WANG Yu-yu
	DONG Peng
	Zhang Dian
	YU Wei-wei
	CHEN Guang-cheng
	CHEN Bin

Cite this article:

HU Wen-jia,CHAO Bi-xiao,WANG Yu-yu等. Assessing the potential distributions of mangrove forests in Fujian Province using MaxEnt model[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2020, 40(9): 4029-4038.

URL:

http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2020/V40/I9/4029

[1]	郑晓敏.1985~2015年中国典型红树林自然保护区遥感监测与分析[D]. 福州:福建农林大学, 2017. Zheng X M. Remote sensing monitoring and analysis of typical mangrove nature reserve in china from 1985 to 2015[D]. Fuzhou:Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, 2017.
[2]	廖宝文,郑德璋,郑松发.我国东南沿海防护林的特殊类型一一红树林[J]. 广东林业科技, 1992,1:30-33. Liao B W, Zheng D Z, Zheng S F. The special type of shelter forest in the southeast coast of China-mangrove forest[J]. Guangdong Forestry Science and Technology, 1992,1:30-33.
[3]	范航清.成立"中国红树林研究中心"的必要性和中心的任务[J]. 广西科学院学报, 1993,9(2):122-129. Fan H Q. Necessity of establishing China mangrove research center and its tasks[J]. Journal of the Guangxi Academy of Science, 1993, 9(2):122-129.
[4]	Balke T, Friess D A. Geomorphic knowledge for mangrove restoration:a pan-tropical categorization[J]. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 2016,41(2):231-239.
[5]	范航清,莫竹承.广西红树林恢复历史、成效及经验教训[J]. 广西科学, 2018,25(4):363-371,387. Fan H Q, Mo C Z. The history, achievements and lessons learnt for mangrove restoration in guangxi, China[J]. Guangxi Sciences, 2018, 25(4):363-371,387.
[6]	林鹏.中国红树林湿地与生态工程的几个问题[J]. 中国工程科学, 2003,5(6):33-38. Lin P. The characteristics of mangrove wetlands and some ecological engineering questions in China[J]. Engineering Science, 2003,5(6):33-38.
[7]	Graham B. Neutral macroecology[J]. Science, 2001,293(9):2413-2418.
[8]	Zhang Y B, Ma K P. Geographic distribution patterns and status assessment of threatened plants in China[J]. Biodiversity and Conservation Biology, 2008,17:1783-1798.
[9]	Rogers K, Krauss K W. Moving from generalisations to specificity about mangrove-saltmarsh dynamics[J]. Wetlands, 2019,39:1155-1178.
[10]	Liu H, Qi X, Gong H, et al. Combined effects of global climate suitability and regional environmental variables on the distribution of an invasive marsh species spartina alterniflora[J]. Estuaries and Coasts, 2019,42:99-111.
[11]	Jayasinghe S L, Kumara L. Modeling the climate suitability of tea[Camellia sinensis(L.) O. Kuntze] in Sri Lanka in response to current and future climate change scenarios[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2019,272-273:10-117.
[12]	Hirzel A H, Le Lay G. Habitat suitability modelling and niche theory[J]. Journal of Applied Ecology, 2008,45(5):1372-1381.
[13]	Hirzel A H, Hausser J, Chessel D, et al. Ecological niche factor analysis:how to compute habitat suitability maps without absence data?[J]. Ecology, 2002,83(7):2027-2036.
[14]	Townsend P A, Papeş M, Eaton M. Transferability and model evaluation in ecological niche modeling:a comparison of GARP and Maxent[J]. Ecography, 2007,30(4):550-560.
[15]	Sobek-Swant S, Kluza D A, Cuddington K, et al. Potential distribution of emerald ash borer:What can we learn from ecological niche models using Maxent and GARP?[J]. Forest Ecology and Management, 2012, 281(1):23-31.
[16]	张路.MAXENT最大熵模型在预测物种潜在分布范围方面的应用[J]. 生物学通报, 2015,50(11):9-12. Zhang L. The application of MAXENT Model in predicting the potential distribution of species[J]. Bulletin of Biology, 2015,50(11):9-12.
[17]	Li X, Mao F, Du H, et al. Spatiotemporal evolution and impacts of climate change on bamboo distribution in China[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2019,248:109265.
[18]	Phillips S J, Anderson R P, Schapire R E, et al. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions[J]. Ecological Modelling, 2006,190(3/4):231-259.
[19]	Warren D L, Seifert S N. Ecological niche modeling in Maxent:The importance of model complexity and the performance of model selection criteria[J]. Ecological Applications, 2011,21(2):335-342.
[20]	Oke O A, Thompson K A. Distribution models for mountain plant species:the value of elevation[J]. Ecological Modelling, 2015,301(10):72-77.
[21]	刘慧明,高吉喜,宋创业,等.紫花含笑适宜生境的保护空缺与人类干扰分析[J]. 中国环境科学, 2019,(9):3976-3981. Liu H M, Gao J X, Song C Y, et al. Conservation status and human disturbance of the habitats of Michelia crassipes Law in China[J]. China Environmental Science, 2019,(9):3976-3981.
[22]	Bateman B L, Pidgeon A M, Radeloff V C, et al. The pace of past climate change vs. potential bird distributions and land use in the United States[J]. Global Change Biology, 2016,22(3):1130-1144.
[23]	Gibson L M, Mychajliw A M, Leon Y, et al. Using the past to contextualize anthropogenic impacts on the present and future distribution of an endemic Caribbean mamma[J]. Conservation Biology, 2019,33:e97122.
[24]	Bargain A, Marchese F, Savini A, et al. Santa Maria di Leuca Province (Mediterranean Sea):Identification of suitable mounds for cold-water coral settlement using geomorphometry proxies and Maxent methods[J]. Frontiers in Marine Science, 2017,4:1-17.
[25]	Retana M V, Lewis M N. Suitable habitat for marine mammals during austral summer in San Jorge Gulf, Argentina[J]. Revista de biología marina y oceanografí, 2017,52(2):275-288.
[26]	Wang L F, Kerr L A, et al. Modeling marine pelagic fish species spatiotemporal distributions utilizing a maximum entropy approach[J]. Fisheries Oceanography, 2018,27(6):571-586.
[27]	林益明,林鹏.福建红树林资源的现状与保护[J]. 生态经济, 1999,(3):17-20. Lin Y M, Lin P. The status and conservation of the mangrove resources in Fujian[J]. Ecological Economy, 1999,(3):17-20.
[28]	王强,伍世代,李永实,等.福建省域主体功能区划分实践[J]. 地理学报, 2009,64(6):725-735. Wang Q, Wu S D, Li Y S, et al. The application of major function oriented zoning in Fujian province[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009,64(6):725-735.
[29]	王新秀.福建省生态地理区划及气候变化对其影响的研究[D]. 福州:福建农林大学, 2010. Wang X Q. Eco-geographical regionalization of Fujian Province and its response to climate[D]. Fuzhou:Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, 2010.
[30]	吴培强.近20年来我国红树林资源变化遥感监测与分析[D]. 青岛:国家海洋局第一海洋研究所, 2012. Wu P Q. Remote sensing monitoring and analysis of the changes of mangrove forests resources in China in the past 20years[D]. Qingdao:First Institute of Oceanography, SOA, 2012.
[31]	国家海洋局.中国海洋21世纪议程行动计划[M]. 北京:海洋出版社, 1996. SOA. China ocean agenda 21century action plan[M]. Beijing:China Ocean Press, 1996.
[32]	黄文丹,陈文惠,郑祥民,等.福建省红树林分布时空变化与驱动因素分析[J]. 环境科学与技术, 2010,33(12):164-170. Huang W D, Chen W H, Zheng X M, et al. Distribution of mangrove in Fujian Province[D]. Environmental Science & Technology, 2010,33(12):164-170.
[33]	Alongi D M. Mangrove forests:resilience, protection from tsunamis, and responses to global climate change[J]. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 2008,76(1):1-13.
[34]	林鹏.中国东南部海岸红树林的类群及其分布[J]. 生态学报, 1981,1(3):89-96. Lin P. Ecological notes on mangroves in southeast coast of China including Taiwan Province and Hainan Island[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 1981,1(3):89-96.
[35]	李航.统计学习方法[M]. 北京:清华大学出版社, 2012. Li H. Statistical learning method[M]. Beijing:Tsinghua University Press, 2012.
[36]	Elith J, Phillips S J, Hastie T, et al. A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists[J]. Diversity and distributions, 2011,17(1):43-57.
[37]	Vessella F, Schirone B. Predicting potential distribution of Quercus suber in Italy based on ecological niche models:conservation insights and reforestation involvements[J]. Forest Ecology and Management, 2013,304(15):150-161.
[38]	张丹华,胡远满,刘淼.基于Maxent生态位模型的互花米草在我国沿海的潜在分布[J]. 应用生态学报, 2019,30(7):2329-2337. Zhang D H, Hu Y M, Liu M. Potential distribution of Spartinal alterniflora in China coastal areas based on Maxent niche model[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2019,30(7):2329-2337.
[39]	王晓玮,任雪燕,梁英梅.基于MaxEnt模型的松针红斑病在中国的潜在分布区及适生性预测分析[J]. 林业科学, 2019,55(4):160-170. Wang X W, Ren X Y, Liang Y M. Maxent-based prediction of potential geographic distribution and habitat suitability analysis for Dothistroma pini in China[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2019,55(4):160-170.
[40]	王卫,杨俊杰,罗晓莹,等.基于Maxent模型的丹霞山国家级自然保护区极小种群植物丹霞梧桐的潜在生境评价[J]. 林业科学, 2019,55(8):19-27. Wang W, Yang J J, Luo X Y, et al. Assessment of potential habitat for Firmiana danxiaensis, a plant species with extremely small populations in Danxiashan National Nature Reserve based on Maxent model[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2019,55(8):19-27.
[41]	Elith J, Graham C H, Anderson R P, et al. Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data[J]. Ecography, 2006,29(2):129-151.
[42]	Hanley J A, McNeil B J. The meaning and use of the area under a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve[J]. Radiology, 1982, 143(1):29-36.
[43]	Lv W, Li Z, Wu X, et al. Maximum entropy niche-based modeling (Maxent) of potential geographical distributions of Lobesia Botrana (Lepidoptera:Tortricidae) in China[C], Beijing:CCTA, 2011.
[44]	Swets J A. Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems[J]. Science, 1988,240(4857):1285-1293.
[45]	许仲林,彭焕华,彭守璋.物种分布模型的发展及评价方法[J]. 生态学报, 2015,35(2):557-567. Xu Z L, Peng H H, Peng S Z. The development and evaluation of species distribution models[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2015,35(2):557-567.
[46]	Landis J R, Koch G G. An application of hierarchical kappa-type statistics in the assessment of majority agreement among multiple observers[J]. Biometrics, 1977,33(2):363-374.
[47]	蔡雪娇,吴志峰,程炯.基于核密度估算的路网格局与景观破碎化分析[J]. 生态学杂志, 2012,(1):160-166. Cai X J, Wu Z F, Cheng J, et al. Relative importance of environmental variables[J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2012,(1):160-166.
[48]	Liu H, Gong H, Qi X, et al. Relative importance of environmental variables for the distribution of the invasive marsh species Spartina alterniflora across different spatial scales[J]. Marine and Freshwater Research, 2018,69:790-801.
[49]	林鹏,沈瑞池,卢昌义.六种红树植物的抗寒特性研究[J]. 厦门大学学报:自然科学版, 1994,33(2):249-252. Lin P, Shen R C, Shen C Y. The characteristics of chilling-resistance on six mangrove plants[J]. Journal of Xiamen University (Natural Science), 1994,33(2):249-252.
[50]	卢昌义,林鹏,叶勇,等.全球气候变化对红树林生态系统的影响与研究对策[J]. 地球科学进展, 1995,10(4):341-347. Lu C Y, Lin P, Ye Y, et al. Review on impact of global climate change on mangrove ecosystems and research countermeasure[J]. Advance in Earth Sciences, 1995,10(4):341-347.
[51]	王文卿,赵萌莉,邓传远,等.福建沿岸地区红树林的种类与分布[J]. 台湾海峡, 2000,19(4):534-540. Wang W Q, Zhao M L, Deng C Y, et al. Species and its distribution of mangroves in Fujian coastal area[J]. Journal of Oceanography in Taiwan Strait, 2000,19(4):534-540.
[52]	杨忠兰.福建省红树林资源现状分析与保护对策[J]. 华东森林经理, 2002,16(4):3-6. Yang Z L. Current status and protection of mangrove forest resources in Fujian Province[J]. East China Forest Management, 2002,16(4):3-6.
[53]	张志才.福建省红树林生态系统的区域功能和建设发展布局研究[D]. 福州:福建农林大学, 2007. Zhang Z C. Studies on ecosystem function and development on mangrove in Fujian[D]. Fuzhou:Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, 2007.
[54]	卢元平.中国五省红树林景观格局的十年动态及保护空缺研究[D]. 昆明:云南大学, 2018. Lu Y P. Landscape pattern changes for a decade and GAP analysis of mangrove ecosystems in China's five provinces[D]. Kunming:Yunnan University, 2018.