中国农产品贸易虚拟水转移及其影响因素研究

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Abstract With increasing water scarcity, alleviating domestic water stress through virtual water transfers in international agricultural products trade is a viable water-saving option strategic. Ten representative countries with a large agricultural trade volume with China were selected to construct a virtual water resource input-output model, and the transfer of implied virtual water in agricultural products trade was calculated. A trade gravity model based on international trade theory with net virtual water imports was also be constructed as the explanatory variable, focusing on the impact of FTA and tariffs. The results show that although the efficiency of agricultural water use in China was improving, there was still a large gap between China and developed agricultural countries. China achieved a virtual water trade deficit with most countries through international agricultural products trade. Variables such as comparative advantage in terms of land resources, labor force size and agricultural productivity as well as presence of FTA and tariff levels were significant influenced on virtual water flows in agricultural trade. Based on these findings, following policy recommendations was made:China's further development and expansion of international trade in agricultural products could effectively relieve pressure on domestic water resources, so we should accelerate the development of foreign trade relations while improving its comparative advantage in agriculture, and give full play to the key role of free trade agreements in international trade in agricultural products.

Key words： agricultural products trade virtual water transfer input-output method trade gravity model

Received: 22 June 2020

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X196

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	ZENG Xian-gang
	DUAN Cun-ru
	WANG Rui

Cite this article:

ZENG Xian-gang,DUAN Cun-ru,WANG Rui. Virtual water transfer in Chinese agricultural products trade and its determinants[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2021, 41(2): 983-992.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2021/V41/I2/983

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