基于变权理论和DPSIRM的中国森林生态安全评价

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Abstract This study combined the variable weight theory and the DPSIRM causality framework to construct an evaluation system with 6subsystems and 23 indicators for forest ecological security in China. The constructed system was applied to evaluate the status of forest ecological security of 31 provinces (cities, autonomous regions) in China during 2005~2017, drawing on data collected mainly from 2006~2018 China Statistical Yearbook and forestry statistical yearbook and using the K-means clustering method guided by the variable weight theory. The results showed that:(1) During the study period, China's forest ecological security measured by the DPSIRM-based index exhibited an overall increasing yet slightly W-shaped fluctuating trend. (2) The mean value of the variable weight was found to be the highest for the State subsystem (0.0781), followed by the Management (0.0728) and Response (0.0640) subsystems. The mean score of the Management subsystem showed an N-shaped changing trend, significantly interacting with the other subsystems and substantially affecting overall forest ecological security. (3) The comprehensive value of forest ecological security in most provinces showed either a steady increase or a fluctuating upward trend, while the values in Liaoning, Tibet and the other areas fluctuated and declined. There were evident differences in the status of regional forest ecological security, as the mean score of Southwest China was as high as 0.3414 but the mean scores of Northwest China, East China and Central China were much lower than the national average level of 0.2794. (4) The overall situation of forest ecological security in China revealed an improving trend at the national level, albeit with a serious divergence phenomenon across regions at the provincial level. Specifically, areas with traditional forestry advantages possessed relatively benign situation of forest ecological security, while those with rapid economic development entailed higher ecological risk. It was suggested that forest ecological restoration projects should be vigorously implemented and promoted by prioritizing ecologically fragile areas and economically developed areas to strengthen the protection of existing forest resources.

Key words： forest ecological security variable weights DPSIRM model K-means

Received: 14 October 2020

PACS:	X171
	S718.5

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	LI Tan
	CHEN Tian-yu
	MI Feng
	MA Long-bo

Cite this article:

LI Tan,CHEN Tian-yu,MI Feng等. Evaluation of China's forest ecological security based on variable weight theory and DPSIRM[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2021, 41(5): 2411-2422.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2021/V41/I5/2411

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