1948~2016年全球主要气象要素演变特征

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Abstract The variation and global distribution of precipitation, temperature and evaporation over 70years were investigated by using Mann Kendall test and R/S analysis. The results showed that:(1) During 1948~2016, the precipitation in 72.7% regions showed an insignificant increasing or decreasing trend, and the global precipitation presented an increasing trend with a rate of 1.9mm/10a. Global temperature showed a significant and persistent upward trend with a rate of 0.23℃/10a, and the increasing speed of the trend was found after 1980. During 1980~2016, the evaporation in most regions displayed an insignificant increasing trend and the rate of trend is 8.2mm/10a. The Hurst Index showed the persistent behavior of temperature and evaporation was significantly greater than that of precipitation; (2) Precipitation showed a significant upward trend in many high latitude areas in the northern hemisphere, while in low latitude area presented a fluctuation or downward trend. The significance level for increasing rate for precipitation in DJF and MAM was higher than that of in other seasons while the level for temperature was weaker. Evaporation displays an upward trend in many coastal regions, and in northern America showed a downward trend in DJF, in Greenland and Nile river basin there were decreasing trend in all year round. (3) Temperature in all continents showed a significant increasing trend during 1948 to 2016, and North America had the highest increasing rate among them. Precipitation presented an increasing trend with exception of Africa, while in Africa there was a decreasing trend and in South America there was a downward trend with three stages. Evaporation in all continents showed a significant increasing trend and Europe has the highest increasing rate among them. Comparing with the rate of precipitation, increasing rate for evaporation in all continents were higher except Oceania.

Key words： climate change variation characteristics spatial distribution M-K test hurst index

Received: 18 January 2021

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	NING Zhong-rui
	ZHANG Jian-yun
	WANG Guo-qing

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NING Zhong-rui,ZHANG Jian-yun,WANG Guo-qing. Variation and global pattern of major meteorological elements during 1948~2016[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2021, 41(9): 4085-4095.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2021/V41/I9/4085

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