广东省土地利用驱动下红树林潜在生境预测

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Abstract In order to explore the influence of land use option on the potential distribution of mangrove forests, MaxEnt model and Dyna-CLUE model were coupled to establish a quantitative relationship between mangrove distribution and land use, using Guangdong Province, which has the largest mangrove distribution area in China, as a research area. MaxEnt model was used to simulate the theoretical suitable area of mangroves under natural conditions. Dyna-CLUE model was used to predict land use change in 2030 under three scenarios. The simulated land use patterns were used as constrains to estimate future mangrove distribution. The results showed that the potential suitable area for mangrove forest in Guangdong Province was about 34531hm² in 2020. The potential suitable area of mangroves could reach 47525hm² under conservation scenario by implementing comprehensive ecological protection and restoration projects. Under the sustainable development scenario, mangrove aera would increase to 38125hm² through returning part of current aquaculture to wetland. However, the mangrove forest areas would be reduced to 24375hm² (i.e. a reduction of 58.61%) in 2030under the business-as-usual scenario. The model coupling method developed in this study could effectively predict the potential distribution of mangroves under different coastal land use strategies. The results of the study found that different land use policies would have a significant impact on the future mangrove distribution. The findings provide scientific support for policy makers to protect and restore mangrove forests.

Key words： mangrove protection and restoration MaxEnt Dyna-CLUE coastal wetland land use change

Received: 02 March 2021

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X171

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	Articles by authors
	CHAO Bi-xiao
	WANG Yu-yu
	YU Wei-wei
	MA Zhi-yuan
	CHEN Guang-cheng
	CHEN Bin
	HU Wen-jia

Cite this article:

CHAO Bi-xiao,WANG Yu-yu,YU Wei-wei等. Predicting mangrove forest distribution driven by land uses in Guangdong Province[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2021, 41(11): 5282-5291.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2021/V41/I11/5282

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