碳达峰国家达峰特征与启示

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Abstract The paper is based on the World Bank World Development Indicators database from 1960 to 2020, and Mann-Kendall test and Spearman's Rho test are used to analyze trends in CO₂ emissions and socioeconomic data of 219 countries and regions around the world. The result shows: the conclusions of the MK test and the SR test are consistent that 42 countries and 1 economic alliance achieved carbon peak, while 46 countries are in the carbon peak plateau. Most peaking countries have the following characteristics: GDP per capita is between 2x10⁴ and 5x10⁴ dollars; tertiary industry accounts for more than 50%; fossil energy consumption still accounts for more than 60%; carbon emissions are in the downward phase of the Environmental Kuznets Curve, and economic development is decoupled from carbon emission. Learning from the experience of the peaking countries, China should further adjust energy structure, increase the proportion of renewable energy consumption, optimize the industrial structure, accelerate the construction of a new pattern of the national economy dominated by the service industry, formulate regionally differentiated carbon peak goals, and promote qualified regions to take the lead in reaching the peak.

Key words： carbon emissions peak peaking characteristics Mann-Kendall test Spearman's Rho test Environmental Kuznets Curve

Received: 01 September 2021

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