黑碳对呼吸系统发病急性影响及气温修正效应研究

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Abstract The distributed-lag nonlinear models (DLNMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs) were adopted to reveal the adverse health effects of black carbon (BC) on respiratory emergency room (ER) visits, as well as the potential modifying effect of air temperature. Daily ER visits of respiratory diseases during 2009~2012 in Beijing, daily air pollutants (including BC, PM_2.5, SO₂, and NO₂), and meteorological data covering that period were collected. Moreover, medical data was divided into three sub-groups, including the total respiratory diseases, upper and lower respiratory infections (URI and LRI), respectively. Firstly, we explored the (lag) associations between BC, air temperature and morbidity separately. Secondly, binary interaction models were constructed to explore the synergistic relationship between temperature and BC. Afterwards the effects of BC at varied temperature levels were quantified by hierarchical models. In addition, certain gaseous pollutant (SO₂ or NO₂) was also included to verify the robustness of basic models. The exposure-response relationships between air temperature and respiratory diseases exhibited an overall "V" type, the thresholds were 24℃, 26℃, and 24℃, respectively for total respiratory diseases, URI, and LRI. The cumulative effects of low temperature were stronger than that of high temperature. BC effect was immediately occurred and lagged for a short-term (within 3days). For each interquartile range (IQR) increase in BC concentration, the corresponding excess risk (ER) of total respiratory disease, URI, and LRI were 1.97%, 2.64%, and 1.34%, respectively. Children (£14years) had the highest excess risk (e.g., total respiratory system, ER=3.40%), while the results were not significant in the elderly group (³60years).Further, the coexistence of BC and SO₂ may amplify BC effect on respiratory diseases, especially for URI, while the coexistence with NO₂ mightincrease LRI risk. The nonparametric bivariate-response models showed that, the respiratory risk related to BC increased in a logarithmic manner, and high temperature enhanced BC effect strongly. When temperature exceeding its thresholds, an IQR increments in BC associated with5.55% and 1.27% (P>0.05) increase of URI and LRI morbidity,respectively.Whereas the ERs were both approximated 0.55% for both URI and LRI under temperatures lower than the thresholds. In a word, the acute effects of BC on respiratory disease were closely related to infection sites and air temperature levels, differentiations among agegroups were also revealed.

Key words： black carbon air temperature respiratory tract infection acute effect interaction

Received: 17 November 2021

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X503.1

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	MA Pan
	TIAN Zi-jie
	ZHANG Xiao-ling
	WANG Shi-gong
	YIN Ling

Cite this article:

MA Pan,TIAN Zi-jie,ZHANG Xiao-ling等. Acute effects of black carbon on respiratory diseases and the modulating effect of air temperature[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2022, 42(6): 2921-2930.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2022/V42/I6/2921

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