中国民航业中长期碳排放预测与技术减排潜力分析

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Abstract This study develops a bottom-up energy system model of China's civil aviation industry based on the LEAP model framework, sets FROZEN, GOAL, MAX, SAF, and REVOLUTION scenarios to quantitatively analyze the industry’s driving factors and development trends, and discusses the medium- and long-term low-carbon development technological pathways. The results show that the number of flights per person is expected to quadruple to more than two by 2060, which will imply up to 690million tons of carbon emissions under the FROZEN (baseline) scenario. Under the MAX scenario, carbon emissions from China’s civil aviation industry are expected to reach a peak at around 300million tons in 2044. The cumulative emission reduction of nearly 50% over the 40 years only requires an additional cost of about 1trillion RMB (compared to the baseline). Promoting fleet replacement, accelerating infrastructure upgrading and operation improvement, and developing sustainable aviation fuels are the essential emission reduction means for the civil aviation industry, which can bring 44.1%, 29.5%, and 26.4% emission reduction respectively. In conclusion, China’s civil aviation industry should formulate the goal of "carbon peak and carbon neutrality" and its implementation plans as soon as possible: promoting the airspace reform, air traffic management, and refined airline management in the short- and medium-term, providing vigorous support to the development of domestic large aircraft, and accelerating the commercialization and marketization of industry chain of sustainable aviation fuels in the long term.

Key words： civil aviation LEAP model carbon emissions reduction technological pathways scenario analysis

Received: 23 December 2021

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	XU Ji-hui
	WANG Ke

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XU Ji-hui,WANG Ke. Medium- and long-term carbon emission forecast and technological emission reduction potential analysis of China's civil aviation industry[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2022, 42(7): 3412-3424.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2022/V42/I7/3412

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