基于Copula函数的成都夏季O<sub>3</sub>污染潜势模型

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Abstract The evolution of Ozone (O₃) concentration near the ground is closely related to the coupling effect of multiple meteorological factors, but the complexity and uncertainty keep still unclear . In order to explore the problem mentioned above, the hourly monitoring data of O₃ concentration as well as the surface meteorological observation data during the same time period in Chengdu from 2016 to 2019 during summer were collected, a three-dimensional copula joint probability distribution model of O₃ pollution potential (including UV radiation, relative humidity, and temperature) was constructed, and the applicability of the model was further explored. Firstly, the optimal marginal probability distributions of UV radiation, relative humidity and ambient temperature under different O₃ concentration levels were determined at significant level of a=0.05 in K-S test based on the optimization of probability distributions belonging to SciPy package. Secondly, the root-mean-square-error (RMSE), Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and Bayesian Information criterion (BIC) of three kinds of joint probability distribution functions were calculated, respectively. With the help of Anderson-Darling test (A-D test), it was found that asymmetric three-dimensional frank Copula joint probability distribution function (M3Copula) has better fitting effects on the joint probability distribution characteristics of UV radiation, relative humidity, and ambient temperature, respectively, under different O₃ concentration levels. Finally, Taking the joint probability density of M3Copula under different O₃ concentration levels as the membership of O₃ concentration levels, the classification results of O₃ pollution potential has a fairly good indication of the actual O₃ concentration levels, and the M3Copula can simulate the O₃ concentration levels with 63% accuracy, of which the simulation accuracy of excellent level, good level, light pollution level and moderate or higher pollution level were 82%, 64%, 48%, and 75%, respectively. Our findings demonstrated that the classification results of O₃ pollution potential have a fairly good instruction significance to actual O₃ concentration levels.

Key words： ozone pollution potential Copula function membership degree Chengdu pollution characteristics

Received: 23 January 2022

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X515

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	Articles by authors
	REN Zhi-han
	NI Chang-jian
	CHEN Yun-qiang
	YANG Hong

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REN Zhi-han,NI Chang-jian,CHEN Yun-qiang等. Summer O₃ pollution potential model based on copula function in Chengdu[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2022, 42(9): 4009-4017.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2022/V42/I9/4009

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