重庆市生态系统服务与人类福祉耦合关系模拟

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Abstract Chongqing was picked up as a case to elucidate the coupling relationships between ecosystem services and human well-being. First, we measured the ecosystem service values and human well-being by using the modified ecosystem service value model and the comprehensive human development index method. Then, a system dynamics model of the coupling relationships between ecosystem services and human well-being was constructed. As a result, the ecosystem services values of all districts and counties in Chongqing demonstrated an increasing trend with significant spatial variabilities from 2010 to 2020; meanwhile, the human well-being index was doubled from 0.31 in 2010 to 0.62 in 2020. And the fitting accuracy of the constructed system dynamics model was high, with the absolute error of the historical tests less than 10%, which means that the model is reliable in predicting future scenarios. On the other hand, from 2020 to 2050, the ecosystem services value, human well-being index and GDP per capita in Chongqing tend to increase under all four scenarios, while the total energy consumption tends to increase under the status quo and economic priority scenarios, and a decrease under the ecological priority and balanced and coordinated scenarios. Comparatively, the balanced and coordinated scenario can be an optimal development scenario that meets the needs of both economic development and environmental protection in Chongqing.

Key words： ecosystem services human well-being system dynamics coupling relationship scenario simulation

Received: 22 September 2022

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X703.5

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	Articles by authors
	ZHOU Li-lei
	SU Xiang-yuan
	XIANG Hong-li
	GUAN Dong-jie

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ZHOU Li-lei,SU Xiang-yuan,XIANG Hong-li等. Simulation of the coupling relationships between ecosystem services and human well-being in Chongqing[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2023, 43(5): 2560-2573.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2023/V43/I5/2560

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