基于LSTM模型的中国交通运输业碳排放预测

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Abstract To further achieve the goal of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality in China's transportation sector, eight variables were selected in this study as key factors driving carbon emissions from the transportation sector, including population, motor vehicle ownership and energy intensity. An LSTM carbon emission model was established with the index data from 1990 to 2019 to forecast the carbon emissions under three scenarios of low-carbon, baseline, and high-carbon. It was shown that the carbon emissions from China's transportation sector exhibited an overall upward trend from 1990 to 2019. Under the low-carbon, baseline and high-carbon scenarios, the carbon peaks would be reached in 2033, 2035 and 2038, with the peaks of 1145.64, 1218.68 and 1308.40 million tons, respectively. China should actively adopt energy-saving and carbon-reducing measures, optimize the structure of the transportation sector, and promote the application of clean energy, so as to achieve the low-carbon scenario and the carbon peak targets as soon as possible.

Key words： transportation carbon emission forecast LSTM scenario analysis

Received: 18 September 2022

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	Articles by authors
	LIU Chun-sen
	QU Jian-sheng
	GE Yu-jie
	TANG Ji-xing
	GAO Xin-yue
	LIU Li-na

Cite this article:

LIU Chun-sen,QU Jian-sheng,GE Yu-jie等. LSTM model-based prediction of carbon emissions from China's transportation sector[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2023, 43(5): 2574-2582.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2023/V43/I5/2574

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