碳中和背景下中国交通部门低碳发展转型路径

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Abstract This paper developed a Carbon Emission Reduction Model of China's Transportation (CERM-CT) based on the LEAP model framework, which included four categories and 228 emission reduction technologies and measures. The paper set three scenarios-business-as-usual, carbon emission reduction, and deep carbon emission reduction-to analyze the driving forces and service needs in the transportation sector's low-carbon transition. It analyzed the cost-effectiveness of technological measures and proposed a low-carbon transition pathway for China's transportation sector. It was more cost-effective to reduce vehicle energy consumption and develop new energy vehicles, while adjusting transportation structure had great potential for carbon emission reduction. Under the carbon emission reduction scenario, the long-term carbon emissions of transportation would drop to 440million tons in 2050, 69.7% of that under the business-as-usual scenario. The reduction was equivalent to 330million tons compared to the baseline year, and was expected to lead to economy-wide carbon neutrality between 2060~2070. Under the deep carbon emission reduction scenario, transportation emissions would fall to 190million tons in 2050, which translated to 86.9% and 56.9% reduction compared with the business-as-usual and carbon emission reduction scenarios, respectively. In physical terms, the reduction was 580million tons and 250million tons, respectively, compared with the baseline year and carbon emission reduction scenario, expected to lead to economy-wide carbon neutrality by 2060. Improving fuel economy, promoting faster development of new energy vehicles, controlling motor vehicle holdings, and adjusting the transportation structure were essential ways to achieve low-carbon transition in transportation sector, which could contribute to 25.0%, 16.7%, 8.3%, and 50.0% of emission reduction, respectively. The fixed investment demand for the deep carbon emission reduction scenario between 2021~2030 and 2031~2050 were 4.2 trillion RMB and 6.3trillion RMB, respectively, with an average annual investment of 0.4trillion RMB. The investment was mainly used for the building of new infrastructure, renovation of terminal energy equipment and development of low-carbon technologies, among which new infrastructure accounted for over 80% of the total investment in the two time periods. To achieve low-carbon transition, China's transportation sector needs to continuously optimize the transport structure, support the development of new energy vehicles, develop low-carbon technologies, and increase investment in low-carbon infrastructure and technologies.

Key words： transportation sector LEAP model low-carbon transition pathway scenario analysis cost-effectiveness analysis

Received: 16 November 2022

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	JIA Lu-yu
	WANG Ke

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JIA Lu-yu,WANG Ke. Low-carbon transition pathways for China's transportation sector under the background of carbon neutrality[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2023, 43(6): 3231-3243.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2023/V43/I6/3231

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