中国跨区域能源系统优化及碳中和情景分析

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Abstract An inter-regional energy system optimization model, NEMO-China-MR, was constructed in this paper. Based on the economic development and energy demand differences across regions, as well as the regional resource endowments and heterogeneity in new energy development, three scenarios were designed: the reference scenario S0for steadily advancing the "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" targets, the comprehensive scenario S1 for supply-demand coordination, and the balanced regional development scenario S2. Each scenario achieved both the "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" targets and the transformation of energy demand while building a new power system. The scenario comparison results indicated that supply-demand coordination influenced the optimal development path of the power system. Energy storage facilities and inter-regional transmission overcame the spatial and temporal mismatches of energy resources. Scenario S1 required consideration of future grid uncertainties, while Scenario S2, which promoted healthy economic growth through balanced regional development, reduced grid transmission pressure and was identified as the most ideal development scenario for the future. Moving forward, it is essential to lead the energy system transition through high-quality economic development, construct a new power system through the coordination of electrification and low-carbon power, and build inter-regional transmission channels while promoting balanced regional development.

Key words： new power system energy storage cross-regional transmission regional balanced development scenario analysis

Received: 05 July 2024

PACS:	X24
	F407

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	ZHAO Qing
	XU Guang-qing

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ZHAO Qing,XU Guang-qing. Cross-regional energy system optimization and carbon neutrality scenario analysis in China[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2025, 45(1): 557-570.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2025/V45/I1/557

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