气候变化和土地利用变化对长江中下游地区植被NPP变化相对贡献分析

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Abstract Quantitatively distinguishing the relative contribution of climate change and land use change on the net primary productivity (NPP) variation of vegetation ecosystems in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin at regional and grid scales can provide reference for regional ecological environment protection and vegetation resource management. The spatio-temporal variation and its future changing trend of the vegetation ecosystem NPP in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin were firstly explored using Theil-Sen Median analysis, Mann-Kendall significance test, and rescaled range (R/S) analysis based on MODIS data, meteorological data, and land use type data. The relative contribution of climate change and land use change on the vegetation ecosystem NPP in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin were then quantitatively distinguished by relative contribution analysis on the basis of scenario settings. Results showed that, on the temporal scale, the vegetation NPP had fluctuated and increased in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin from 2000 to 2021 with a magnitude of 6.99g/(m²·a). The NPP of forest land, grassland, and cultivated land ecosystems showed upward trends. The increasing rates of NPP in descending order were observed in forest land, grassland, and cultivated land ecosystems with magnitudes of 9.79g/(m²·a), 8.84g/(m²·a), and 2.34g/(m²·a), respectively. On the spatial scale, the changing rate of vegetation NPP presented a spatial distribution pattern of "high in the south and low in the north" of the study area. In the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the proportion of areas with NPP increase in the whole region as well as forest land, grassland, and cultivated land ecosystems was larger than the proportion of areas with NPP decrease, among which, the proportion of areas with NPP increase in forest land and grassland ecosystems was 91.43% and 91.48% respectively. The proportion of the area with NPP increase in the future was smaller than that with NPP decrease in the study area. The relative contribution of climate change and land use change can be obtained on the basis of the results of the relative contribution analysis that, on the regional scale, the relative contribution of climate change and land use change on the NPP variation of vegetation ecosystem in the study was 85.60% and 10.85%, respectively. Furthermore, the NPP variation in forest land ecosystem and grassland ecosystem was dominated by climate change dominated, while the NPP variation in cultivated land ecosystem was dominated by land use change. On the grid scale, the proportion of the areas with NPP variation dominated by land use change accounted for 54.99% in the cultivated land ecosystem and 56.91% in the grassland ecosystem in the study area, respectively. The proportion of the areas with NPP variation dominated by climate change account for 71.96% in the forest land ecosystem. The relative contribution of other factors on the NPP variation in cultivated land ecosystem was higher than that in forest land and grassland ecosystems.

Key words： the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin vegetation net primary productivity climate change land use change vegetation ecosystem relative contribution

Received: 01 February 2023

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X171.1

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	XU Yong
	LU Yun-gui
	DAI Qiang-yu
	ZHAO Chun
	HUANG Wen-ting
	CHEN Tian-wei
	ZHANG Yan

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XU Yong,LU Yun-gui,DAI Qiang-yu等. Assessment of the relative contribution of climate change and land use change on net primary productivity variation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2023, 43(9): 4988-5000.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2023/V43/I9/4988

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