基于IO-SDA法的2020~2060年中国行业CO<sub>2</sub>排放预测与分析

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Abstract Firstly, the IO-SDA method was employed to calculate CO₂ emissions from 2017 to 2020. Then, based on domestic authoritative forecasting reports, the RAS method was used to derive the input-output table and energy consumption data of various industries from 2025 to 2060. Finally, the IO-SDA method was used to quantitatively evaluate the contribution of each driving factor to changes in both the total CO₂ emissions and CO₂ emissions in various industries of different periods between 2020 to 2060. The results show that CO₂ emissions in China’s industries were observed to initially increase and then decrease from 2020 to 2060. A peak in emissions was reached around 2030, followed by a plateau period. Starting in 2035, a rapid reduction in emissions was initiated, with the rate of decrease slowing down after 2050. The foremost driving factor of CO₂ emissions from 2020 to 2060 is the scale of final demand, with carbon emission intensity being the most important mitigating factor. While input-output and final demand structures only promote CO₂ emissions growth during specific periods, they generally have a positive impact on CO₂ reduction, albeit limited. With the stabilization of the economic structure, the impact of the two factors gradually diminishes. The total CO₂ emissions and the amplitude of changes in four key factors were observed to undergo a transition from minimal to maximal and then back to minimal across three distinct phases: the peak plateau period, the rapid reduction period, and the comprehensive neutralization period. From the perspective of industry, the major drivers of CO₂ reduction include the production and supply of public goods, such as electricity, metal products manufacturing, transportation, storage and postal services, and the chemical industry. In order to effectively achieve CO₂ reduction goals, government policies should continue to give full play to the positive effects of carbon emission intensity as well as place greater emphasis on the positive effects of technological innovation in key industries and optimizing the final demand structure for CO₂ reduction.

Key words： carbon neutrality input-output structural decomposition analysis RAS method China

Received: 03 July 2023

PACS:

X32

Corresponding Authors: 王火根,教授,412163218@qq.com E-mail: 412163218@qq.com

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	WANG Huo-gen
	WANG Yu-ting
	XIAO Li-xiang

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WANG Huo-gen,WANG Yu-ting,XIAO Li-xiang. Forecast and analysis of China's industrial CO₂ emissions from 2020 to 2060 based on the IO-SDA method[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2024, 44(3): 1743-1755.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2024/V44/I3/1743

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