基于综合减污降碳策略的成渝地区中长期空气质量改善模拟

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Abstract The three medium- to long-term comprehensive scenarios for pollution reduction and carbon mitigation in the Cheng-Yu district were formulated, encompassing the baseline policy, dynamic optimization, and maximum potential scenarios. Regional air pollution and carbon emission inventories, along with an air quality model, were applied to simulate the extent of air quality improvement under different scenarios. Subsequently, pollution reduction and carbon mitigation pathways were optimized, taking into account long-term air quality improvement goals. The results revealed that, to achieve medium- to long-term improvements in air quality and carbon emission reduction goals, compared to the baseline year of 2017, the reduction percentages of SO₂, NO_x, PM_2.5, VOCs, and CO₂ in the years 2025 and 2035 were 29%, 32%, 19%, 24%, 3%, and 35%, 49%, 28%, 39%, 12%, respectively. In the near to medium term, end-of-pipe treatments (especially ultra-low emission transformations in key industries) remain the primary driving force for reducing air pollutants, accounting for approximately 20%~55% of the overall reduction. In the medium to long term, measures related to energy, industry, and transportation structure adjustments driven by the “dual carbon” goals play a crucial role in pollution reduction, accounting for approximately 65%~87% of the overall reduction. Furthermore, significant differences are observed in the emission reduction contributions from key emission sources. Mobile sources and solvent use sources make significant contributions to the reduction of NO_x and VOCs, while stationary combustion sources, process sources, and mobile sources all have noticeable contributions to CO₂ emission reductions.

Key words： Cheng-Yu district the reduction of pollution and carbon emissions air quality improvement scenario optimization

Received: 04 July 2023

PACS:

X51

Corresponding Authors: 李振亮,正高级工程师,zhenliangli@163.com;卢培利,教授,lupl@cqu.edu.cn E-mail: zhenliangli@163.com;lupl@cqu.edu.cn

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	DUAN Lin-feng
	LI Zhen-liang
	PU Xi
	CAO Yun-qing
	LU Pei-li
	WANG Feng-wen
	XUE Wen-bo
	LEI Yu
	ZHANG Sheng

Cite this article:

DUAN Lin-feng,LI Zhen-liang,PU Xi等. Simulation of medium and long-term air quality improvement in the Cheng-Yu district based on comprehensive pollution reduction and carbon reduction strategies[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2024, 44(3): 1756-1768.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2024/V44/I3/1756

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