甘肃省生态系统服务权衡协同关系评估与预测

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Abstract Taking Gansu Province as the study region, the land use status of Gansu Province was predicted under four different development scenarios in 2030 by coupling the GMMOP and PLUS model, and the dynamic changes of carbon storage, water yield, soil conservation and habitat quality were assessed quantitatively by using the InVEST model, and the trade-offs and synergies relationships between the ecosystem services were analyzed under different scenarios. The results showed that, from 2000 to 2020, the carbon storage in Gansu Province decreased by 0.081×10⁸t, water yield increased by 3.086×10¹⁰m³, soil conservation increased by 33.857×10¹⁰t, habitat quality decreased by 0.009. Under the natural development (ND) scenario, all the carbon storage, water yield and habitat quality decreased, with only an increase of soil conservation by 0.310×10¹⁰t; under the ecological protection (EP) scenario, carbon storage and soil conservation increased significantly; all four ecosystem services decreased under the economic development (ED) scenario; and in the comprehensive development (CD) scenario, carbon storage increased by 1.307×10⁸t, with the other three services declining. Overall, synergistic relationships were observed between the four ecosystem services in all cities and prefectures of Gansu Province, except for Baiyin City and Jiayuguan City. Under the four scenarios, there was no significant change in the synergistic relationship between carbon storage and water yield, carbon storage and soil conservation, and water yield and soil conservation in most regions. However, under the ND, EP, and CD scenarios, the synergistic relationship between habitat quality and carbon storage, habitat quality and water yield increased, while the synergistic relationship between habitat quality and soil conservation decreased.

Key words： ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies GMMOP-PLUS model multi-scenario simulation Gansu Province

Received: 05 September 2023

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X171.1

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	XU Jing
	LIU Hui

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XU Jing,LIU Hui. Assessment and prediction of ecosystem services trade-offs and synergies relationships in Gansu Province[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2024, 44(4): 1863-1874.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2024/V44/I4/1863

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