考虑储能的电力系统优化与中国碳中和情景分析

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Abstract To achieve carbon neutrality, a new type of power system with new energy as the main body needs to be built on the supply side, and the electrification rate needs to be improved on the demand side. Simultaneously, the integration of new energy sources necessitated the construction of energy storage facilities. In this study, the NEMO-China energy system model was built based on the LEAP-NEMO framework, and the cost of the power system was optimized. The baseline scenario was set with high carbon sink capacity expectations and the retention of coal-fired power as a backup, then the demand-oriented, supply-oriented, and Comprehensive scenarios were set according to different development pathways. China's terminal energy demand, power system operations, cost, and CO₂ emissions were simulated from 2020 to 2060. Results indicated that carbon peaking was achieved as scheduled. Achieving carbon neutrality in the Baseline scenario required support from CCUS and negative carbon technologies. The demand-oriented scenario incurred high costs and did not achieve cost-effectiveness. In the supply-oriented scenario, achieving carbon neutrality was challenging with low expectations for carbon sink capacity, necessitating simultaneous efforts in deep decarbonization on the supply side and deep transformation on the demand side. The comprehensive scenario achieved carbon neutrality with the lowest cumulative costs and carbon emissions, making it the ideal pathway for future carbon neutrality. Encouraging industrial transformation and increasing electrification rates on the demand side, while promoting the penetration of renewable energy and the development of energy storage technologies on the supply side, are necessary for the future.

Key words： LEAP-NEMO renewable energy energy storage scenario analysis

Received: 20 October 2023

PACS:	X24
	F407

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	FAN Shi-jia
	XU Guang-qing
	ZHAO Qing
	WU Jing-yi

Cite this article:

FAN Shi-jia,XU Guang-qing,ZHAO Qing等. Power system optimization with energy storage and carbon neutrality scenario analysis of China[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2024, 44(5): 2833-2846.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2024/V44/I5/2833

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