中国钢铁行业CO<sub>2</sub>排放特征和减排路径研究——基于ARIMA-LEAP模型

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Abstract To have removed any subjective bias in forecasting future production levels of crude steel, steel, and pig iron, the past study employed the ARIMA model in time series analysis to provide an objective outlook on production volumes. Specifically, it had developed the ARIMA-LEAP model tailored for the Chinese steel industry, using 2020 as the benchmark year and examining production estimates at 5-year intervals from 2020 to 2030. The research delved into the CO₂ emissions throughout the entire steel production process, considering various scenarios.By incorporating advancements such as hydrogen reduction ironmaking technology and adapting energy structures, including shifts in electricity generation methods, the study had established four individual scenarios and four combined scenarios, which were then evaluated for their potential impact on emission reductions. The results showed that the CO₂ emission reduction potential of the four combined scenarios with scale emission reduction had been higher than that of the single scenario.Among them, SUR+TER, SUR+STR and comprehensive emission reduction scenarios can be reached in 2030, and the peak years are all 2021, and the CO₂ emissions at the peak time are 1322.5Mt, 1335.9Mt and 1328.9Mt, respectively. In comparison to the baseline scenario, the CO₂ emission reduction in a single scenario, from the highest to the lowest, was as follows: In 2030, the emission reductions in the scale (SUR), structural (STR), and technical (TAR) scenarios, relative to the base scenario, were found to be 493.1Mt, 247.8Mt, and 105.1Mt, respectively. Utilizing the LEAP model's energy accounting and CO₂ emission accounting functions, the CO₂ emissions of different processes and different energy sources from 2020 to 2030 under the comprehensive emission reduction scenario were studied. Among them, the three processes with the highest CO₂ emissions were the iron making, steel rolling, and sintering processes, while the four energy sources with the highest CO₂ emissions were washed coal, pulverized coal injection, electric power, and coke. Notably, the CO₂ emission of washed coal reached the 10Bt level, while the other three energy sources also reached the Bt level. This study had identified the CO₂ emissions characteristics of the Chinese steel industry and conducted a simple comparison of the costs for technical emission reduction and structural emission reduction, subsequently formulating a path for CO₂ emission reduction in the Chinese steel industry.

Key words： LEAP model steel industry CO₂ emission characteristics emission reduction path scenario analysis

Received: 04 November 2023

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	CHEN Hao
	HU Jing-ru
	WANG Shou-bing
	ZHANG Ting-feng
	FANG Kai

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CHEN Hao,HU Jing-ru,WANG Shou-bing等. Research on carbon dioxide emission characteristics and emission reduction path of China's iron and steel industry based on ARIMA-LEAP model[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2024, 44(6): 3531-3543.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2024/V44/I6/3531

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