黄河流域五大增长极碳排放脱钩效应——基于GDIM的因素分解

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Abstract Based on provincial-level energy balance sheets, a top-down estimation method was adopted to calculate the carbon emissions of the five major growth poles in the Yellow River Basin from 2007 to 2020. The expanded generalized Divisia index decomposition method (GDIM) was utilized to decompose the driving factors of carbon emissions in the five major growth poles. Combining the GDIM decomposition method with the traditional decoupling model, a new decoupling index model was constructed to deeply investigate the decoupling effects of carbon emissions in the five major growth poles, scientifically quantifying the decoupling contributions of various factors. The results indicated that the total carbon emissions in the five major growth poles of the Yellow River Basin showed a trend of initial growth followed by a decline, while the carbon intensity in the five major growth poles generally exhibited a decreasing trend, with a reduction exceeding 63%. The impact of various factors on carbon emissions in the five major growth poles varied significantly. Technological scale and output scale were the main factors causing carbon emissions to increase, while technological carbon intensity was the primary factor inhibiting the increase in carbon emissions. Energy consumption carbon intensity and energy intensity had significant potential for reducing future carbon emissions. Except for the "Ji"-shaped metropolitan area in the Yellow River Basin from 2015 to 2020, which did not achieve decoupling, the other stages saw some decoupling achievements in the five major growth poles. Notably, the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration exhibited a strong decoupling effect from 2010 to 2015, with a decoupling index value reaching 1.6126. Technological carbon intensity and output carbon intensity were the dominant factors determining decoupling of carbon emissions in the five major growth poles. Drawing from these findings, the following policy measures were proposed: formulating tailored carbon emission reduction policies, intensifying support for the research and application of low-carbon technologies, and continuously optimizing the energy structure.

Key words： carbon emissions five major growth poles GDIM decomposition decoupling effects Yellow River Basin

Received: 08 October 2023

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	CHEN Rui-min
	MA Xiao-jun
	LI Yi-liang

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CHEN Rui-min,MA Xiao-jun,LI Yi-liang. Analysis of carbon emission decoupling effects in the five growth poles of the Yellow River Basin based on GDIM decomposition[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2024, 44(5): 2853-2866.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2024/V44/I5/2853

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