碳中和情景下人为排放对全球对流层臭氧的影响研究

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Abstract Based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM2), future emission scenarios, and the stratospheric ozone tracer "O₃S", this study reveals the changes of tropospheric O₃ and its precursors, and the impact of stratospheric intrusion on tropospheric O₃ under a carbon neutral scenario. The results show that, surface anthropogenic and aircraft emissions of NO_x were significantly reduced under a carbon neutral scenario, especially during the winter and spring seasons, which lead to a significant decrease in surface NO_x concentrations. Along with the reduction of O₃ precursors, global surface O₃ concentration was also decreasing, except in Eastern China, where the titration of O₃ by NO was weakened. In the vertical, the most substantial decrease of O₃ concentration was concentrated around the tropopause, with a reduction of more than 26×10^-9, especially in summer. The decrease of stratospheric O₃ concentration caused by reduced aircraft emissions also contributed to the reduction in tropospheric O₃. Under a carbon neutral scenario, the decrease of stratospheric invasion to surface O₃ was the highest in winter with reduced values of 1.7×10^-9, and the lowest in summer with reduced values of 0.9×10^-9. In the northern hemisphere, the most substantial decrease was located at high latitudes with values of more than 4×10^-9. In the vertical, the decrease of stratospheric contributions to tropospheric O₃ increased with altitude, with high values of more than 24×10^-9 in the free troposphere during winter. Therefore, the decreases in surface anthropogenic and aircraft emissions under the carbon neutral scenario will benefit the improvement of global ozone pollution, and the decrease of stratospheric contribution also had an important contribution to the future change of ozone concentration.

Key words： carbon neutrality emission scenarios tropospheric ozone anthropogenic emissions CESM2 stratospheric contribution

Received: 16 November 2023

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	WANG Xin-yue
	ZHANG Jia-lei
	HOU Xue-wei
	WU Ru-hong

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WANG Xin-yue,ZHANG Jia-lei,HOU Xue-wei等. Impact of anthropogenic emissions on the global tropospheric ozone under the carbon neutrality scenario[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2024, 44(6): 3517-3530.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2024/V44/I6/3517

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